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Premier League
Referee: A Madley
Newcastle
T U S U U
5–1
Full-time
Aston Villa
T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
1,8
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,41 xG 1,77
53% Possession 47%
17 Shots 16
13 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 7
6 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Apr -23 Aston Villa – Newcastle 3–0 29. Oct -22 Newcastle – Aston Villa 4–0 13. Feb -22 Newcastle – Aston Villa 1–0 21. Aug -21 Aston Villa – Newcastle 2–0 12. Mar -21 Newcastle – Aston Villa 1–1

Match report

Newcastle Aston Villa
6′
🟨 Douglas Luiz
1–0 S. Tonali ⚽
A. Gordon
6′
11′
⚽ M. Diaby 1–1
O. Watkins
2–1 A. Isak ⚽
S. Botman
16′
31′
🔁 Pau Torres
↦ T. Mings
32′
🟨 Lucas Digne
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 Y. Tielemans
↦ L. Bailey
48′
🟨 Matty Cash
Anthony Gordon 🟨
53′
Sven Botman 🟨
54′
54′
🟨 Emiliano Martínez
3–1 A. Isak ⚽
58′
64′
🔁 Diego Carlos
↦ J. McGinn
Bruno Guimarães 🟨
67′
C. Wilson 🔁
↦ A. Isak
68′
H. Barnes 🔁
↦ A. Gordon
68′
4–1 C. Wilson ⚽
H. Barnes
77′
S. Longstaff 🔁
↦ Bruno Guimarães
85′
J. Murphy 🔁
↦ M. Almirón
86′
87′
🔁 J. Philogene
↦ M. Cash
87′
🔁 Philippe Coutinho
↦ M. Diaby
5–1 H. Barnes ⚽
J. Murphy
91′
Sandro Tonali 🟨
92′
E. Anderson 🔁
↦ S. Tonali
92′
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
22 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
5 F. Schär D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
8 S. Tonali M
39 Bruno Guimarães M
7 Joelinton M
24 M. Almirón F
14 A. Isak F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (9)
9 C. Wilson
15 H. Barnes
36 S. Longstaff
23 J. Murphy
32 E. Anderson
1 M. Dúbravka
13 M. Targett
6 J. Lascelles
21 T. Livramento

Coach: E. Howe

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
1 E. Martínez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
5 T. Mings D
12 L. Digne D
44 B. Kamara M
6 Douglas Luiz M
31 L. Bailey M
19 M. Diaby M
7 J. McGinn M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (9)
14 Pau Torres
8 Y. Tielemans
3 Diego Carlos
33 J. Philogene
23 Philippe Coutinho
16 C. Chambers
35 C. Archer
25 R. Olsen
71 O. Kellyman

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,76
🔒
U
3,88
🔒
B
4,61
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,76
🔒
U2,5
2,09
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Madley · 167 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.