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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Toulouse

T S T U U

1–3

Full-time

Marseille

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

5,0

Scored

0,5

3,5

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,99 xG 0,84

24% Possession 76%

4 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 3

10 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 13. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nantes	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.4	7
2	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+9	+5.8	6
3	Lille	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.7	6
5	Lens	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.0	6
6	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.3	4
7	Strasbourg	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
8	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.4	3
9	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
10	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
11	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
12	Lyon	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.0	3
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.9	2
14	Nice	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
15	Reims	2	0	1	1	-2	-4.3	1
16	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.2	1
17	Angers	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.1	0
18	St Etienne	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+6	+3.2	3
2	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.0	3
3	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Nantes	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Lens	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.1	3
7	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Brest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
10	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
11	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
12	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
14	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
15	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
16	Reims	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
17	St Etienne	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
18	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.1	3
3	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.7	3
4	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
5	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
6	Le Havre	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
7	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Reims	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
9	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
10	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
11	Nice	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
12	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
13	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
14	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
15	Brest	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
16	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.0	0
17	St Etienne	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.5	0
18	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.