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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lens

U U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Marseille

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 29%

27%

30%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

45%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

45%

40%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,08 xG 1,13

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 11. · Marseille 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+20	+14.1	27
2	Nice	12	7	5	0	+9	+8.1	26
3	Monaco	12	7	3	2	+11	+5.5	24
4	Lille	12	5	5	2	+4	+6.2	20
5	Reims	12	6	2	4	+2	+2.3	20
6	Le Havre	12	3	6	3	-1	-5.7	15
7	Brest	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
8	Nantes	12	4	2	6	-6	-6.2	14
9	Montpellier	11	3	4	4	+1	+2.7	13
10	Marseille	10	3	4	3	+0	+7.9	13
11	Lens	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.7	13
12	Metz	12	3	4	5	-6	-9.8	13
13	Rennes	12	2	6	4	+0	+3.3	12
14	Toulouse	12	2	6	4	-3	-10.7	12
15	Strasbourg	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.1	12
16	Lorient	12	2	5	5	-6	-8.2	11
17	Clermont	11	2	3	6	-6	-5.4	9
18	Lyon	11	1	4	6	-10	-6.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	6	5	0	1	+9	+2.7	15
2	Paris SG	6	4	1	1	+11	+5.5	13
3	Lille	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.2	13
4	Nice	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
5	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.7	11
6	Rennes	7	2	3	2	+3	+5.1	9
7	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+1	-3.7	9
8	Reims	6	3	0	3	-1	+3.5	9
9	Lens	5	2	2	1	+4	+6.4	8
10	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.9	8
11	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
12	Strasbourg	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.1	8
13	Le Havre	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.4	8
14	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
15	Montpellier	5	1	3	1	+1	+2.2	6
16	Metz	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.8	6
17	Clermont	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.5	4
18	Lyon	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.7	14
2	Nice	6	4	2	0	+4	+3.2	14
3	Reims	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.2	11
4	Monaco	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
5	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.5	7
6	Lille	6	1	4	1	-1	+0.0	7
7	Le Havre	6	1	4	1	-2	-8.1	7
8	Brest	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.8	7
9	Metz	6	2	1	3	-6	-8.0	7
10	Toulouse	7	1	3	3	-5	-10.3	6
11	Nantes	6	2	0	4	-8	-4.3	6
12	Clermont	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.9	5
13	Lens	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.8	5
14	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.1	4
15	Strasbourg	5	1	1	3	-7	-5.2	4
16	Rennes	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.8	3
17	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
18	Lorient	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.