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Ligue 1

Referee: G Angoula

Toulouse

T U U U T

3–0

Full-time

Metz

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,34 xG 0,69

66% Possession 34%

15 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 16. · Metz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.7	14
2	Reims	7	4	1	2	+5	+2.8	13
3	Brest	6	4	1	1	+2	+3.0	13
4	Paris SG	7	3	3	1	+8	+8.3	12
5	Nice	6	3	3	0	+4	+3.9	12
6	Strasbourg	7	3	1	3	-2	+0.2	10
7	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+3	-2.3	9
8	Marseille	7	2	3	2	-2	+4.3	9
9	Rennes	6	1	5	0	+4	+4.9	8
10	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.3	8
11	Lille	6	2	2	2	-1	+3.2	8
12	Metz	6	2	2	2	-3	-5.5	8
13	Lens	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.6	7
14	Montpellier	6	1	3	2	+0	+1.0	6
15	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.2	6
16	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	-7.7	6
17	Clermont	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.0	2
18	Lyon	7	0	2	5	-10	-8.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.8	9
2	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.1	7
3	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
4	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.5	7
5	Brest	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.9	7
6	Le Havre	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.7	6
7	Reims	3	2	0	1	+3	+3.6	6
8	Lille	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
9	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
10	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
11	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
12	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
13	Lens	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.3	4
14	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
15	Metz	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.9	1
18	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.9	7
2	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
3	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.0	6
4	Metz	3	2	0	1	-2	-5.1	6
5	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+3	+5.2	5
6	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.9	5
7	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.3	4
8	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.6	4
9	Le Havre	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.0	3
10	Rennes	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
11	Nantes	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
12	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.3	3
13	Lens	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.7	3
14	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
15	Marseille	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.8	2
16	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
17	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1
18	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.