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Eredivisie
Referee: J Manschot
Ajax
U U S S T
4–1
Full-time
Heracles
T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heracles
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,3
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,3
0,7
Conceded
1,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,53 xG 0,89
70% Possession 30%
31 Shots 7
13 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
13 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ajax Heracles
10′
🟨 Justin Hoogma
J. Gorter 🔁
↦ G. Rulli
32′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 T. Bruns
↦ J. Hornkamp
50′
M. Engels 0–1
1–1 J. Medić
J. Hato
53′
56′
🟨 Anas Ouahim
58′
🟨 Mario Engels
Benjamin Tahirović 🟨
61′
D. Klaassen 🔁
↦ K. Taylor
61′
68′
🔁 B. Limbombe
↦ A. Nankishi
69′
🔁 M. Vejinović
↦ A. Ouahim
69′
🔁 R. Roosken
↦ J. Willems
Devyne Rensch 🟨
74′
74′
🟨 Thomas Bruns
2–1 M. Kudus
B. Tahirović
75′
3–1 S. Bergwijn
A. Salah-Eddine
85′
88′
🟨 Bryan Limbombe
Carlos Forbs 🔁
↦ B. Brobbey
89′
O. Wijndal 🔁
↦ A. Salah-Eddine
89′
89′
🔁 D. van Oorschot
↦ E. Hansson
Mohammed Kudus ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
94′
4–1 S. Bergwijn
96′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
1 G. Rulli G
2 D. Rensch D
18 J. Medić D
4 J. Hato D
17 A. Salah-Eddine D
33 B. Tahirović M
8 K. Taylor M
21 B. van den Boomen M
20 M. Kudus F
9 B. Brobbey F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (11)
12 J. Gorter
6 D. Klaassen
11 Carlos Forbs
5 O. Wijndal
19 J. Sánchez
24 S. Vos
37 C. Rasmussen
38 K. Hlynsson
40 D. Ramaj
43 O. Aertssen
39 M. Godts

Coach: M. Steijn

Heracles

4-2-3-1
1 M. Brouwer G
19 N. Bakboord D
4 S. Sonnenberg D
21 J. Hoogma D
15 J. Willems D
14 B. De Keersmaecker M
10 A. Ouahim M
24 A. Nankishi M
8 M. Engels M
29 E. Hansson M
23 J. Hornkamp F
Bench (12)
17 T. Bruns
7 B. Limbombe
18 M. Vejinović
12 R. Roosken
30 D. van Oorschot
32 S. Scheperman
36 T. Jansink
35 S. Bultman
28 R. Jalving
3 J. Wieckhoff
9 A. Satriano
6 S. Čestić

Coach: J. Lammers

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,18
U
7,73
B
13,26
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,34
U2,5
3,20
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Manschot · 135 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.