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Eredivisie

Referee: Sander van der Eijk

Nijmegen

S S T T T

2–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

5,2

3,5

Scored

3,2

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

5,2

3,8

Scored

3,2

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,81 xG 0,38

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nijmegen 8. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	+10	+4.7	16
2	Feyenoord	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.9	16
3	Ajax	7	4	3	0	+7	+5.8	15
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.2	12
5	Groningen	6	4	0	2	+3	+0.2	12
6	Twente	7	3	1	3	+2	+6.7	10
7	For Sittard	7	3	1	3	+0	-5.3	10
8	Nijmegen	6	3	0	3	+7	+5.4	9
9	Utrecht	6	3	0	3	+6	+1.3	9
10	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.5	9
11	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-11	-4.6	9
12	Volendam	7	1	4	2	-3	-3.8	7
13	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.1	7
14	NAC Breda	7	2	1	4	-5	-6.0	7
15	Excelsior	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.8	6
16	Heerenveen	6	1	2	3	-2	+6.2	5
17	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.2	4
18	Heracles	7	1	0	6	-12	-11.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Groningen	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.9	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.8	9
4	PSV Eindhoven	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.2	7
5	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.8	7
6	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
7	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
8	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
9	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.9	5
10	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	+0	+4.5	5
11	Volendam	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.9	5
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
13	Twente	3	1	1	1	-1	+3.2	4
14	Heracles	3	1	0	2	-1	-4.3	3
15	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-2	-4.1	3
16	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.0	3
17	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-7	-3.4	3
18	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.5	9
2	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+5	+4.1	7
3	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.2	7
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.2	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.1	5
7	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.1	4
8	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+1	+0.4	3
9	Ajax	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
10	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.1	3
11	For Sittard	4	1	0	3	-2	-6.1	3
12	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
13	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.8	3
14	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-7	-1.6	3
15	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
16	NAC Breda	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.8	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-11	-6.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.