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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Mota
Porto
S S S U S
1–1
Full-time
Gil Vicente
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Gil Vicente
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,2
Scored
2,3
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 68%
87%
48%
Points per game
2,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
74%
52%
Both score Ø 55%
61%
48%
Average goals
3,2
2,6
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%
30 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 1
9 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 7
10 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 4
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Porto 1. · Gil Vicente 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 23 20 3 0 +42 63
2 Sp Lisbon 24 18 4 2 +31 58
3 Benfica 24 17 3 4 +41 54
4 Sp Braga 23 13 5 5 +17 44
5 Gil Vicente 23 11 7 5 +11 40
6 Guimaraes 24 8 6 10 +0 30
7 Estoril 24 7 9 8 -2 30
8 Portimonense 24 7 8 9 -2 29
9 Maritimo 24 7 8 9 -3 29
10 Pacos Ferreira 24 6 9 9 -7 27
11 Famalicao 24 6 8 10 -7 26
12 Boavista 24 4 13 7 -8 25
13 Santa Clara 23 6 7 10 -15 25
14 Vizela 24 5 9 10 -14 24
15 Arouca 24 5 7 12 -20 22
16 Moreirense 24 4 8 12 -16 20
17 Tondela 24 6 2 16 -17 20
18 Belenenses 24 3 6 15 -31 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Gil Vicente
3′
🟥 Vítor Carvalho
Galeno 🔁
↦ S. Eustáquio
31′
Half-time 0–1
62′
Fran Navarro 0–1
Samuel Lino
64′
🔁 Matheus Bueno
↦ K. Fujimoto
1–1 Evanilson
M. Taremi
66′
Fábio Vieira 🔁
↦ João Mário
67′
Francisco Conceição 🔁
↦ Galeno
67′
68′
🟨 Rúben Fernandes
Wendell 🔁
↦ Z. Sanusi
77′
Toni Martínez 🔁
↦ Vitinha
78′
Chancel Mbemba 🟨
81′
81′
🔁 E. Hackman
↦ Fran Navarro
81′
🔁 B. Aouacheria
↦ A. Léautey
90′
🔁 G. Aburjania
↦ Pedrinho
Fábio Cardoso 🟨
99′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
19 C. Mbemba D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
12 Z. Sanusi D
25 Otávio M
46 S. Eustáquio M
20 Vitinha M
9 M. Taremi F
11 Pepê Aquino M
23 João Mário D
30 Evanilson F
Bench (9)
13 Galeno
50 Fábio Vieira
10 Francisco Conceição
22 Wendell
29 Toni Martínez
5 Iván Marcano
14 Cláudio Ramos
70 Gonçalo Borges
87 Bernardo Folha

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Gil Vicente

4-3-3
42 Andrew G
26 Rúben Fernandes D
31 Talocha D
3 Lucas Cunha D
2 Zé Carlos D
8 Pedrinho M
11 A. Léautey F
21 Vitor Carvalho M
10 K. Fujimoto M
9 Fran Navarro F
29 Samuel Lino F
Bench (9)
57 Matheus Bueno
5 E. Hackman
7 B. Aouacheria
15 G. Aburjania
17 Boubacar Hanne
19 J. Calero
55 Henrique Gomes
93 Élder Santana
12 Brian Araújo

Coach: Ricardo Soares

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,26
U ✓
5,70
B
11,06
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,70
U2,5 ✓
2,14
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Mota · 73 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.