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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra

Barcelona

U S S U S

4–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

This season — La Liga · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 41%

46%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

50%

36%

Both score Ø 58%

67%

48%

Average goals

2,9

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

72% Possession 28%

17 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 0

4 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 6. · Ath Bilbao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	26	18	6	2	+32	60
2	Sevilla	26	15	9	2	+21	54
3	Betis	26	14	4	8	+16	46
4	Ath Madrid	26	13	6	7	+13	45
5	Villarreal	26	11	9	6	+22	42
6	Barcelona	24	11	9	4	+14	42
7	Sociedad	25	11	8	6	+0	41
8	Ath Bilbao	25	9	10	6	+8	37
9	Valencia	26	8	9	9	-4	33
10	Celta	26	8	8	10	+1	32
11	Osasuna	26	8	8	10	-6	32
12	Vallecano	25	9	4	12	-2	31
13	Espanol	26	7	8	11	-9	29
14	Elche	26	7	8	11	-9	29
15	Getafe	26	6	9	11	-4	27
16	Mallorca	25	6	8	11	-16	26
17	Granada	25	5	9	11	-13	24
18	Alaves	26	5	6	15	-23	21
19	Cadiz	25	3	11	11	-18	20
20	Levante	26	3	9	14	-23	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	13	10	3	0	+17	33
2	Real Madrid	13	9	4	0	+20	31
3	Villarreal	14	8	4	2	+20	28
4	Ath Madrid	13	8	3	2	+11	27
5	Vallecano	13	8	2	3	+11	26
6	Sociedad	13	7	4	2	+4	25
7	Betis	13	7	2	4	+10	23
8	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+10	23
9	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	22
10	Getafe	13	6	3	4	+6	21
11	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+6	20
12	Elche	12	5	5	2	+3	20
13	Valencia	13	4	6	3	+2	18
14	Mallorca	13	4	6	3	+1	18
15	Celta	13	4	3	6	+0	15
16	Granada	12	4	3	5	-4	15
17	Alaves	13	4	3	6	-5	15
18	Levante	13	2	6	5	-5	12
19	Osasuna	13	2	6	5	-9	12
20	Cadiz	13	0	8	5	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Betis	13	7	2	4	+6	23
3	Sevilla	13	5	6	2	+4	21
4	Osasuna	13	6	2	5	+3	20
5	Barcelona	13	4	7	2	+4	19
6	Ath Madrid	13	5	3	5	+2	18
7	Ath Bilbao	13	3	8	2	+2	17
8	Celta	13	4	5	4	+1	17
9	Sociedad	12	4	4	4	-4	16
10	Valencia	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Villarreal	12	3	5	4	+2	14
12	Cadiz	12	3	3	6	-9	12
13	Granada	13	1	6	6	-9	9
14	Elche	14	2	3	9	-12	9
15	Mallorca	12	2	2	8	-17	8
16	Espanol	13	1	4	8	-12	7
17	Getafe	13	0	6	7	-10	6
18	Levante	13	1	3	9	-18	6
19	Alaves	13	1	3	9	-18	6
20	Vallecano	12	1	2	9	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.