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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Arouca

U S T U T

1–0

Full-time

Portimonense

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 24%

19%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

55%

35%

Both score Ø 50%

58%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Portimonense 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	26	4	1	+59	82
2	Sp Lisbon	31	24	4	3	+42	76
3	Benfica	31	21	5	5	+46	68
4	Sp Braga	31	17	8	6	+20	59
5	Gil Vicente	31	12	12	7	+10	48
6	Guimaraes	31	12	7	12	+4	43
7	Maritimo	31	9	10	12	-3	37
8	Pacos Ferreira	31	9	10	12	-11	37
9	Estoril	32	8	12	12	-6	36
10	Santa Clara	31	8	12	11	-14	36
11	Portimonense	31	9	8	14	-13	35
12	Famalicao	32	7	12	13	-8	33
13	Boavista	31	6	15	10	-14	33
14	Vizela	31	7	11	13	-16	32
15	Arouca	31	6	9	16	-24	27
16	Moreirense	31	6	8	17	-19	26
17	Tondela	31	7	5	19	-23	26
18	Belenenses	31	5	10	16	-30	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+35	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+19	37
3	Benfica	16	10	3	3	+21	33
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+13	31
5	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
6	Guimaraes	15	8	2	5	+9	26
7	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+3	21
8	Boavista	16	4	9	3	+0	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	+0	19
11	Maritimo	15	4	6	5	+4	18
12	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
13	Belenenses	15	5	3	7	-13	18
14	Estoril	16	3	8	5	-1	17
15	Portimonense	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	Moreirense	15	4	3	8	-3	15
17	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15
18	Arouca	15	4	3	8	-15	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Benfica	15	11	2	2	+25	35
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+7	28
5	Gil Vicente	15	7	6	2	+7	27
6	Estoril	16	5	4	7	-5	19
7	Maritimo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
8	Portimonense	15	5	4	6	-7	19
9	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
11	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
12	Vizela	15	3	5	7	-11	14
13	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
14	Boavista	15	2	6	7	-14	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-14	11
16	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	6	8	-13	9
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.