Gamealyst.com

← Match Finder

Primeira Liga

Referee: Sérgio Guelho

Arouca

U T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Nacional

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

Arouca Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

2,0

3,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,23 xG 1,21

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+12	+8.1	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.1	9
3	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.3	9
4	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.1	6
5	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.3	6
6	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
7	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.2	6
8	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
10	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.6	3
11	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-5.1	3
12	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
13	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.2	1
14	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.4	1
15	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
16	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.2	0
17	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.3	0
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+6.7	6
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.5	6
3	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
7	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
10	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
12	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
15	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
16	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
17	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+10	+5.6	6
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
9	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
10	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
11	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
12	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
13	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
14	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
15	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
16	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.