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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Rio Ave

U U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Arouca

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,66 xG 1,10

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 14. · Arouca 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+14	+10.6	12
2	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.3	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.6	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
5	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
6	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
7	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+1	+3.1	6
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
10	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
11	AVS	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.5	4
12	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.1	4
13	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
14	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-5.1	3
15	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.2	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-4	-6.2	2
17	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.4	1
18	Farense	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+6.7	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.5	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
6	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
7	AVS	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
9	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
10	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
11	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
12	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
13	Nacional	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.6	3
14	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.4	1
16	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
17	Estrela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+10	+5.6	6
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
6	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.3	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.1	3
10	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
11	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.9	1
13	Benfica	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.6	1
15	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
17	Farense	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.