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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Casa Pia

U T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Estrela

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

40%

45%

Both score Ø 53%

60%

45%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,46 xG 0,25

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 7. · Estrela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	21	16	3	2	+41	+33.8	51
2	Benfica	21	15	2	4	+31	+24.5	47
3	Porto	21	13	4	4	+27	+21.6	43
4	Sp Braga	21	13	4	4	+18	+16.1	43
5	Santa Clara	21	12	2	7	+3	+8.9	38
6	Guimaraes	21	7	9	5	+5	+6.5	30
7	Casa Pia	20	8	6	6	+1	-5.2	30
8	Estoril	21	8	6	7	-6	-14.6	30
9	Famalicao	21	5	10	6	-2	-6.6	25
10	Rio Ave	20	6	6	8	-12	-15.9	24
11	Moreirense	21	6	5	10	-6	-0.0	23
12	Gil Vicente	21	5	7	9	-9	-7.9	22
13	Nacional	21	6	4	11	-9	-4.6	22
14	Arouca	20	6	4	10	-13	-9.9	22
15	AVS	21	3	9	9	-15	-9.7	18
16	Estrela	20	4	5	11	-15	-12.2	17
17	Farense	21	3	6	12	-17	-14.8	15
18	Boavista	21	2	6	13	-22	-10.1	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+27	+17.9	30
2	Porto	11	9	2	0	+23	+22.2	29
3	Sp Lisbon	10	9	0	1	+18	+14.2	27
4	Santa Clara	11	7	1	3	+2	+11.1	22
5	Guimaraes	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
6	Sp Braga	11	5	3	3	+8	+12.9	18
7	Estoril	11	5	3	3	-1	-5.8	18
8	Rio Ave	10	4	5	1	+1	-1.8	17
9	Gil Vicente	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.4	16
10	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
11	Moreirense	10	4	4	2	+1	-1.7	16
12	Nacional	10	5	1	4	-2	-2.0	16
13	Estrela	11	4	2	5	-3	-5.1	14
14	AVS	11	3	4	4	-5	-6.2	13
15	Famalicao	11	2	6	3	-2	-0.3	12
16	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
17	Farense	10	2	1	7	-10	-3.9	7
18	Boavista	10	0	3	7	-13	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+10	+3.3	25
2	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+23	+19.5	24
3	Benfica	10	5	2	3	+4	+6.6	17
4	Santa Clara	10	5	1	4	+1	-2.2	16
5	Porto	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.7	14
6	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-3	-5.8	14
7	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
8	Estoril	10	3	3	4	-5	-8.9	12
9	Guimaraes	11	2	5	4	-1	+1.6	11
10	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.2	11
11	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-9	-6.1	9
12	Farense	11	1	5	5	-7	-10.9	8
13	Moreirense	11	2	1	8	-7	+1.6	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Nacional	11	1	3	7	-7	-2.6	6
16	Gil Vicente	11	1	3	7	-15	-9.2	6
17	AVS	10	0	5	5	-10	-3.5	5
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.