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Primeira Liga
Referee: Sergio Guelho
Maritimo
S S T T T
1–0
Full-time
Casa Pia
T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Casa Pia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,5
1,5
Scored
1,8
0,8
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,39 xG 0,67
39% Possession 61%
16 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 6
0 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

19. Mar -23 Casa Pia – Maritimo 2–0 3. Oct -22 Maritimo – Casa Pia 1–2

Match report

Maritimo Casa Pia
Half-time 0–0
47′
🟨 David Sousa
1–0 Raphael Guzzo ⚽
M. Tejon
61′
66′
🔁 P. Rosas
↦ A. Conte
66′
🔁 K. Prieto
↦ K. Osundina
78′
🔁 A. Jatta
↦ Gabi
80′
🔁 S. Clua
↦ S. Perez
80′
🔁 Kaly
↦ J. Goulart
S. Bamba 🔁
↦ S. Bouzaidi
82′
86′
🟨 Alassana Jatta
T. Tavares 🔁
↦ M. Tejon
87′
M. Boakye 🔁
↦ A. Butzke
87′
Raphael Guzzo 🟨
91′
J. Santiago Perez 🔁
↦ V. Danilovic
91′
G. Szalai 🔁
↦ Raphael Guzzo
91′
Tomás Tavares 🟨
96′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Maritimo

4-2-3-1
13 A. Pastor G
2 Igor Juliao D
4 R. Fernandes D
44 R. Correia D
23 P. Henrique D
18 V. Danilovic M
6 R. Andrade M
11 S. Bouzaidi M
14 Raphael Guzzo M
10 M. Tejon M
17 A. Butzke F
Bench (10)
1 G. Tabuaco
77 Pedro Teixeira
27 S. Bamba
25 J. Santiago Perez
16 F. Silva
15 T. Tavares
22 G. Szalai
66 I. Ayuma
90 M. Boakye
68 N. Batista

Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag

Casa Pia

4-3-3
31 A. Gomes G
18 A. Geraldes D
4 J. Goulart D
43 D. Sousa D
5 A. Conte D
24 S. Perez M
80 L. Ofori M
8 Gabi M
13 K. Osundina F
9 H. Araujo F
10 Rochinha F
Bench (11)
22 D. Azevedo
95 I. Mandic
27 Kaique Rocha
75 P. Rosas
20 A. Jatta
99 C. Mendes
11 R. Blanco
19 K. Prieto
16 S. Clua
3 Kaly
59 A. Dafe

Coach: Filipe Coelho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,41
🔒
U
3,35
🔒
B
2,76
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,90
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,81
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Sergio Guelho · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
29,5 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.