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Champions League
Referee: T Stieler
PSV Eindhoven
U S T S S
3–2
Full-time
Liverpool
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
5,0
2,8
Scored
2,8
2,2
Conceded
2,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 72%
43%
100%
Points per game
1,6
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 50%
71%
29%
Average goals
3,3
2,4
Scored
1,9
2,1
Conceded
1,4
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

1,32 xG 1,64
53% Possession 47%
12 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 2
3 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Liverpool
28′
⚽ C. Gakpo 0–1
1–1 J. Bakayoko ⚽
R. Pepi
35′
40′
⚽ H. Elliott 1–2
2–2 I. Saibari ⚽
J. Veerman
45′
Half-time 2–2
Joey Veerman 🟨
48′
Rick Karsdorp 🟨
48′
50′
🟨 Andrew Robertson
3–2 R. Pepi ⚽
50′
52′
🔁 T. Morton
↦ C. Gakpo
63′
🟨 Tyler Morton
64′
🔁 T. Nyoni
↦ A. Robertson
66′
🟨 Harvey Elliott
R. Ledezma 🔁
↦ R. Karsdorp
66′
L. de Jong 🔁
↦ R. Pepi
76′
C. Driouech 🔁
↦ I. Saibari
76′
A. Nagalo 🔁
↦ A. Obispo
76′
83′
🔁 A. Nallo
↦ J. Danns
87′
🟥 Amara Nallo
I. Babadi 🔁
↦ G. Til
92′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-4-2
1 W. Benítez G
2 R. Karsdorp D
4 A. Obispo D
18 O. Boscagli D
17 Mauro Júnior D
11 J. Bakayoko M
28 T. Land M
23 J. Veerman M
34 I. Saibari M
14 R. Pepi F
20 G. Til F
Bench (9)
37 R. Ledezma
9 L. de Jong
21 C. Driouech
39 A. Nagalo
26 I. Babadi
16 J. Drommel
47 T. Abed
36 W. Kuhn
24 N. Schiks

Coach: P. Bosz

Liverpool

4-3-3
62 C. Kelleher G
84 C. Bradley D
78 J. Quansah D
26 A. Robertson D
21 K. Tsimikas D
19 H. Elliott M
3 W. Endō M
53 J. McConnell M
14 F. Chiesa F
76 J. Danns F
18 C. Gakpo F
Bench (9)
80 T. Morton
98 T. Nyoni
65 A. Nallo
52 I. Mabaya
68 K. Morrison
51 T. Koné-Doherty
56 V. Jaroš
95 H. Davies
77 J. Norris

Coach: A. Slot

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.