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Champions League
Referee: M Balakin
Sturm Graz
S U S T T
1–0
Full-time
RB Leipzig
S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
3,8
4,7
Scored
2,3
2,2
Conceded
1,5
2,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 14%
14%
14%
Points per game
0,4
0,4
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
43%
71%
Both score Ø 50%
29%
71%
Average goals
2,6
3,1
Scored
0,6
1,1
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,4
-0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,24 xG 1,59
40% Possession 60%
9 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 9
2 Offside 6
13 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sturm Graz RB Leipzig
41′
🟨 Amadou Haidara
1–0 A. Malić ⚽
42′
Half-time 1–0
Dimitri Lavalėe 🟨
51′
William Bøving ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
63′
Seedy Jatta 🟨
64′
65′
🔁 B. Šeško
↦ Y. Poulsen
65′
🔁 X. Simons
↦ N. Seiwald
65′
🔁 D. Raum
↦ C. Baumgartner
72′
🔁 C. Lukeba
↦ E. Bitshiabu
A. Camara 🔁
↦ S. Jatta
74′
84′
🔁 L. Klostermann
↦ L. Geertruida
S. Hierländer 🔁
↦ J. Gorenc Stankovič
86′
L. Zvonarek 🔁
↦ W. Bøving
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
1 K. Scherpen G
23 A. Malić D
35 N. Geyrhofer D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
8 M. Yalcouyé M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
21 T. Chukwuani M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
15 W. Bøving F
20 S. Jatta F
Bench (12)
36 A. Camara
25 S. Hierländer
14 L. Zvonarek
33 O. Sorg
32 K. Schopp
47 E. Aiwu
17 E. Karić
40 M. Bignetti
38 L. Grgić
19 T. Horvat
53 D. Khudyakov
43 J. Hödl

Coach: J. Säumel

RB Leipzig

3-4-1-2
26 M. Vandevoordt G
13 N. Seiwald D
4 W. Orbán D
5 E. Bitshiabu D
3 L. Geertruida M
8 A. Haidara M
18 A. Vermeeren M
7 A. Nusa M
14 C. Baumgartner F
9 Y. Poulsen F
11 L. Openda F
Bench (9)
30 B. Šeško
10 X. Simons
22 D. Raum
23 C. Lukeba
16 L. Klostermann
47 V. Gebel
1 P. Gulácsi
48 L. Voufack
43 L. Koß

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Balakin · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.