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Europa League
Referee: D Strukan
Sturm Graz
U S S S S
2–2
Full-time
Atalanta
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,60 xG 1,70
32% Possession 68%
11 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 8
1 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Sturm Graz Atalanta
1–0 A. Prass ⚽
O. Kiteishvili
13′
34′
⚽ L. Muriel 1–1
Half-time 1–1
Otar Kiteishvili 🟨
47′
50′
ℹ️ Davide Zappacosta
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Stefan Hierländer 🟨
52′
52′
🟨 Ademola Lookman
52′
⚽ L. Muriel 1–2
Stefan Hierländer 🟨
52′
Stefan Hierländer 🟥
52′
S. Włodarczyk 🔁
↦ S. Jatta
61′
Javi Serrano 🔁
↦ O. Kiteishvili
62′
D. Lavalée 🔁
↦ G. Wüthrich
62′
63′
🔁 H. Hateboer
↦ M. Ruggeri
64′
🔁 G. Scamacca
↦ L. Muriel
64′
🔁 C. De Ketelaere
↦ A. Lookman
W. Bøving 🔁
↦ A. Prass
70′
T. Horvat 🔁
↦ M. Sarkaria
77′
77′
🔁 M. Bakker
↦ D. Zappacosta
Tomi Horvat ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
79′
2–2 S. Włodarczyk ⚽
80′
81′
🔁 G. Scalvini
↦ R. Tolói
82′
🟨 Mitchel Bakker
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
1 K. Scherpen G
22 J. Gazibegović D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
44 A. Dante D
25 S. Hierländer M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 A. Prass M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
20 S. Jatta F
11 M. Sarkaria F
Bench (12)
9 S. Włodarczyk
14 Javi Serrano
24 D. Lavalée
15 W. Bøving
19 T. Horvat
43 H. Obi
6 A. Borković
31 L. Marić
28 D. Schnegg
17 Bryan Teixeira
29 M. Fuseini
2 M. Johnston

Coach: C. Ilzer

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
1 J. Musso G
2 R. Tolói D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolašinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
15 M. de Roon M
13 Éderson M
22 M. Ruggeri M
7 T. Koopmeiners F
11 A. Lookman F
9 L. Muriel F
Bench (12)
33 H. Hateboer
90 G. Scamacca
17 C. De Ketelaere
20 M. Bakker
42 G. Scalvini
8 M. Pašalić
59 Aleksey Miranchuk
29 M. Carnesecchi
3 E. Holm
31 F. Rossi
25 M. Adopo
43 G. Bonfanti

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Strukan · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
6,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,43 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.