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Europa League
Referee: D Stefanski
Marseille
T T U S T
3–1
Full-time
AEK
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille AEK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
2,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
3,5
Scored
2,5
2,0
Conceded
2,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,04 xG 0,95
61% Possession 39%
13 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 0
3 Offside 6
14 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Marseille AEK
-5′
🟨 Lazaros Rota
11′
🟨 Djibril Sidibé
Leonardo Balerdi 🟨
26′
1–0 Vítinha ⚽
J. Clauss
27′
Jonathan Clauss 🟨
32′
44′
🔁 M. Mohammadi
↦ E. Hajisafi
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 E. Ponce
↦ D. Sidibé
53′
⚽ O. Pineda 1–1
P. Mantalos
56′
ℹ️ Cican Stanković
VAR: Card upgrade
57′
🟥 Cican Stanković
59′
🔁 G. Athanasiadis
↦ P. Mantalos
2–1 A. Harit ⚽
60′
68′
🟨 Nordin Amrabat
3–1 J. Veretout ⚽
69′
I. Sarr 🔁
↦ Vítinha
75′
P. Aubameyang 🔁
↦ A. Harit
75′
75′
🔁 K. Galanopoulos
↦ D. Szymański
75′
🔁 N. Eliasson
↦ N. Amrabat
83′
🟨 Jens Jønsson
Ismaïla Sarr ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
87′
A. Murillo 🔁
↦ J. Veretout
88′
B. Nadir 🔁
↦ J. Clauss
89′
B. Meïté 🔁
↦ L. Balerdi
89′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Marseille

4-3-3
36 Rubén Blanco G
7 J. Clauss D
99 C. Mbemba D
5 L. Balerdi D
12 Renan Lodi D
19 G. Kondogbia M
21 V. Rongier M
27 J. Veretout M
11 A. Harit F
9 Vítinha F
29 I. Ndiaye F
Bench (9)
23 I. Sarr
10 P. Aubameyang
62 A. Murillo
34 B. Nadir
18 B. Meïté
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
8 A. Ounahi
4 S. Gigot
37 E. Soglo

Coach: G. Gattuso

AEK

4-2-3-1
1 C. Stanković G
29 D. Sidibé D
21 D. Vida D
2 H. Moukoudi D
28 E. Hajisafi D
4 D. Szymański M
6 J. Jønsson M
5 N. Amrabat M
20 P. Mantalos M
13 O. Pineda M
10 S. Zuber F
Bench (8)
3 M. Mohammadi
14 E. Ponce
30 G. Athanasiadis
25 K. Galanopoulos
19 N. Eliasson
99 G. Theocharis
12 L. Rota
24 G. Mitoglou

Coach: M. Almeyda

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Stefanski · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.