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Europa League
Referee: A Taylor
Leverkusen
S S S U S
3–2
Full-time
Qarabag
U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/13 matches
Win Ø 70%
86%
54%
Points per game
2,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
71%
62%
Both score Ø 63%
57%
69%
Average goals
3,7
3,2
Scored
3,0
1,7
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

4,30 xG 1,15
71% Possession 29%
33 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 3
12 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
13 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 5
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Mar -24 Qarabag – Leverkusen 2–2 9. Nov -23 Qarabag – Leverkusen 0–1 26. Oct -23 Leverkusen – Qarabag 5–1

Match report

Leverkusen Qarabag
E. Palacios 🔁
↦ J. Hofmann
28′
Half-time 0–1
58′
⚽ A. Zoubir 0–1
Leandro Andrade
P. Schick 🔁
↦ Borja Iglesias
59′
Álex Grimaldo 🔁
↦ P. Hincapié
60′
63′
🟥 Elvin Cafarquliyev
63′
ℹ️ Elvin Cafarquliyev
VAR: Card upgrade
66′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ Y. Benzia
67′
⚽ Juninho 0–2
M. Vešović
Patrik Schick 🟨
70′
1–2 J. Frimpong ⚽
Álex Grimaldo
72′
77′
🟨 Juninho Vieira
78′
🔁 Matheus Silva
↦ Leandro Andrade
78′
🔁 N. Axundzadə
↦ Juninho
J. Stanišić 🔁
↦ O. Kossounou
79′
86′
🔁 Patrick Andrade
↦ A. Zoubir
87′
🔁 K. Medina
↦ M. Vešović
90′
🟨 Andrey Lunev
2–2 P. Schick ⚽
Álex Grimaldo
93′
3–2 P. Schick ⚽
E. Palacios
97′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Leverkusen

3-4-2-1
17 M. Kovář G
6 O. Kossounou D
12 E. Tapsoba D
8 R. Andrich D
30 J. Frimpong M
7 J. Hofmann M
34 G. Xhaka M
3 P. Hincapié M
10 F. Wirtz F
21 A. Adli F
9 Borja Iglesias F
Bench (10)
25 E. Palacios
14 P. Schick
20 Álex Grimaldo
2 J. Stanišić
36 N. Lomb
32 G. Puerta
1 L. Hrádecký
4 J. Tah
23 A. Hložek
19 N. Tella

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 A. Lunev G
29 M. Vešović D
13 B. Mustafazadə D
55 B. Hüseynov D
44 E. Cəfərquliyev D
6 Júlio Romão M
8 M. Janković M
15 Leandro Andrade M
7 Y. Benzia M
10 A. Zoubir M
18 Juninho F
Bench (12)
27 T. Bayramov
2 Matheus Silva
90 N. Axundzadə
66 Patrick Andrade
81 K. Medina
19 R. Xhixha
23 L. Gugeshashvili
24 A. Isaev
30 A. Hüseynov
5 M. Medvedev
17 H. Keyta
89 A. Ramazanov

Coach: Q. Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.