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Bundesliga
Referee: P Ciochirca
Grazer AK
U U T U U
0–3
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Grazer AK Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 4/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 71%
75%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%
11 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Grazer AK 9. · Sturm Graz 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Salzburg 5 3 2 0 +9 +4.2 11
2 SK Rapid 4 3 1 0 +3 +0.8 10
3 Altach 4 2 2 0 +3 +1.1 8
4 Tirol 3 2 1 0 +4 +3.9 7
5 Ried 5 2 1 2 +1 -2.4 7
6 Sturm Graz 3 2 0 1 +3 +2.9 6
7 Wolfsberger AC 4 2 0 2 +2 +0.1 6
8 Hartberg 4 2 0 2 +0 -0.4 6
9 Grazer AK 4 0 3 1 -5 -3.0 3
10 LASK 5 1 0 4 -8 -5.0 3
11 Austria Vienna 4 0 1 3 -5 +0.0 1
12 BW Linz 5 0 1 4 -7 -2.2 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Grazer AK Sturm Graz
Lukas Graf 🟨
20′
30′
🟨 Emir Karić
39′
🔁 J. Hodl
↦ J. Gorenc Stankovic
41′
S. Jatta 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 S. Hierlander
↦ O. Kiteishvili
64′
T. Horvat 0–2
T. Oermann
67′
🟨 Seedy Jatta
M. Satin 🔁
↦ D. Frieser
70′
Z. Jano 🔁
↦ D. Maderner
70′
A. Hofleitner 🔁
↦ T. Cipot
70′
76′
🟨 Jacob Hödl
76′
🔁 G. Haider
↦ T. Oermann
Tobias Koch 🟥
80′
C. Lichtenberger 🔁
↦ L. Graf
80′
M. Kreuzriegler 🔁
↦ R. Harakate
83′
87′
🟨 Tochi Chukwuani
90′
S. Jatta 0–3
93′
🔁 B. Beganovic
↦ L. Grgic
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Grazer AK

3-4-2-1
1 J. Meierhofer G
3 L. Vraa-Jensen D
15 L. Graf D
82 B. Owusu D
28 D. Frieser
8 T. Koch M
6 S. Fofana M
14 J. Italiano M
22 R. Harakate F
11 T. Cipot F
9 D. Maderner F
Bench (9)
26 C. Nicht
4 M. Kreuzriegler
7 M. Satin
10 C. Lichtenberger
98 F. Ehmann
18 Z. Jano
20 T. Schriebl
24 T. Paumgartner
25 A. Hofleitner

Coach: Ferdinand Feldhofer

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
1 O. Christensen G
5 T. Oermann D
47 E. Aiwu D
24 D. Lavalee D
17 E. Karic D
19 T. Horvat M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovic M
21 T. Chukwuani M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
38 L. Grgic F
20 S. Jatta F
Bench (7)
40 M. Bignetti
8 F. Rozga
22 J. Beck
25 S. Hierlander
26 B. Beganovic
27 G. Haider
43 J. Hodl

Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

P Ciochirca · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.