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Bundesliga
Referee: S Gishamer
Hartberg
S T U S T
1–1
Full-time
Sturm Graz
U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hartberg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 53%
43%
62%
Points per game
1,6
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
62%
43%
Both score Ø 48%
48%
48%
Average goals
2,8
2,4
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%
5 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 8
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 26
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hartberg 4. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 22 15 5 2 +33 50
2 Sturm Graz 21 13 6 2 +22 45
3 LASK 22 9 8 5 +8 35
4 Hartberg 21 9 6 6 +5 33
5 A. Klagenfurt 21 8 9 4 +2 33
6 SK Rapid 21 8 8 5 +17 32
7 Austria Vienna 21 8 6 7 +1 30
8 Wolfsberger AC 21 8 5 8 -3 29
9 BW Linz 21 4 7 10 -14 19
10 Altach 21 4 6 11 -13 18
11 Tirol 21 4 2 15 -20 14
12 A. Lustenau 21 1 4 16 -38 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Oct -23 Sturm Graz – Hartberg 2–1 18. Feb -23 Hartberg – Sturm Graz 1–2 3. Sep -22 Sturm Graz – Hartberg 0–0 27. Feb -22 Sturm Graz – Hartberg 3–0 3. Oct -21 Hartberg – Sturm Graz 3–2

Match report

Hartberg Sturm Graz
Donis Avdijaj ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
27′
29′
⚽ W. Bøving 0–1
Raphael Sallinger 🟨
33′
Half-time 0–1
57′
🟨 David Schnegg
64′
🟨 Dimitri Lavalėe
65′
🟨 Max Johnston
68′
🔁 J. Gazibegović
↦ M. Johnston
1–1 D. Avdijaj ⚽
70′
78′
🔁 A. Camara
↦ D. Lavalée
78′
🔁 S. Włodarczyk
↦ M. Biereth
M. Steinwender 🔁
↦ D. Prokop
80′
89′
🔁 S. Jatta
↦ W. Bøving
R. Providence 🔁
↦ M. Entrup
90′
J. Halwachs 🔁
↦ D. Avdijaj
93′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Hartberg

4-1-4-1
1 R. Sallinger G
28 J. Heil D
14 P. Komposch D
5 I. Bowat D
20 M. Pfeifer D
32 O. Diakité M
37 M. Fillafer M
10 D. Avdijaj M
45 M. Sangaré M
27 D. Prokop M
11 M. Entrup F
Bench (7)
12 M. Steinwender
25 J. Halwachs
70 R. Providence
31 T. Rotter
23 T. Kainz
39 T. Knoflach
17 M. Kröpfl

Coach: M. Schopp

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
16 V. Jaroš G
2 M. Johnston D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
28 D. Schnegg D
24 D. Lavalée M
35 N. Geyrhofer M
8 A. Prass M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
15 W. Bøving F
18 M. Biereth F
Bench (6)
22 J. Gazibegović
36 A. Camara
9 S. Włodarczyk
20 S. Jatta
31 L. Marić
25 S. Hierländer

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U ✓
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Gishamer · 121 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.