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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Everton

U T T S U

4–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

33%

Points per game

1,4

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 9. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	27
2	Man City	12	8	2	2	+17	26
3	Arsenal	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+5	25
5	Tottenham	12	5	6	1	+10	21
6	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+7	21
7	Southampton	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Crystal Palace	12	6	1	5	+2	19
9	Everton	12	4	5	3	+4	17
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
11	Watford	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Stoke	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	West Brom	12	4	2	6	-6	14
14	Swansea	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Chelsea	12	3	2	7	-7	11
17	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-9	10
18	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-13	8
19	Sunderland	12	1	3	8	-13	6
20	Aston Villa	12	1	2	9	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+14	15
2	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Leicester	6	4	1	1	+2	13
4	Tottenham	6	3	3	0	+6	12
5	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Southampton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Everton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	West Ham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Swansea	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Norwich	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	+2	6
17	Sunderland	6	1	2	3	-1	5
18	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Aston Villa	6	0	2	4	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	+9	15
2	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Man United	7	4	1	2	+2	13
4	Leicester	6	3	3	0	+3	12
5	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
6	Man City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Southampton	6	2	4	0	+3	10
8	West Brom	6	3	1	2	-1	10
9	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
10	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Stoke	6	2	3	1	+0	9
13	Watford	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Chelsea	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-11	4
18	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-6	3
19	Bournemouth	6	1	0	5	-9	3
20	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.