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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Stoke

T S U U T

0–4

Full-time

Chelsea

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 0

0 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 13. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	1	0	+14	13
2	Man United	5	4	1	0	+14	13
3	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Huddersfield	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Watford	5	2	2	1	-2	8
12	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-1	7
13	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Swansea	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Leicester	5	1	1	3	-2	4
16	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Everton	5	1	1	3	-8	4
19	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	0	5	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Huddersfield	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Man City	2	1	1	0	+5	4
8	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Watford	3	0	2	1	-6	2
19	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Burnley	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Man United	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Arsenal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	West Ham	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.