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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Southampton

U S S U U

1–2

Full-time

Cardiff

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

20%

24%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

60%

56%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 16. · Cardiff 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	20	2	4	+48	62
2	Liverpool	25	19	5	1	+41	62
3	Tottenham	25	19	0	6	+27	57
4	Man United	26	15	6	5	+17	51
5	Chelsea	25	15	5	5	+22	50
6	Arsenal	25	14	5	6	+15	47
7	Wolves	25	11	5	9	+1	38
8	Watford	25	9	7	9	-1	34
9	Everton	26	9	6	11	-2	33
10	Bournemouth	25	10	3	12	-7	33
11	Leicester	25	9	5	11	-1	32
12	West Ham	25	9	5	11	-7	32
13	Brighton	25	7	6	12	-9	27
14	Crystal Palace	25	7	5	13	-7	26
15	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-12	24
16	Southampton	25	5	9	11	-15	24
17	Burnley	25	6	6	13	-20	24
18	Cardiff	25	6	4	15	-24	22
19	Fulham	26	4	5	17	-33	17
20	Huddersfield	25	2	5	18	-33	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	12	0	1	+32	36
2	Liverpool	12	10	2	0	+25	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Man United	12	7	4	1	+9	25
6	Tottenham	12	8	0	4	+10	24
7	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+8	24
8	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
9	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+3	19
11	West Ham	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Watford	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-8	17
14	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
15	Leicester	12	4	2	6	+0	14
16	Burnley	12	4	2	6	-7	14
17	Newcastle	13	4	1	8	-6	13
18	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-3	12
19	Southampton	12	2	6	4	-5	12
20	Huddersfield	13	1	2	10	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	13	11	0	2	+17	33
2	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Man City	13	8	2	3	+16	26
4	Man United	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Chelsea	12	7	1	4	+5	22
6	Wolves	12	5	3	4	+0	18
7	Leicester	13	5	3	5	-1	18
8	Watford	13	4	5	4	+1	17
9	Arsenal	12	4	3	5	-2	15
10	Crystal Palace	13	4	2	7	-4	14
11	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-6	14
12	Everton	12	3	3	6	-2	12
13	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-10	12
14	Newcastle	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	Bournemouth	12	3	0	9	-15	9
17	Brighton	13	2	2	9	-12	8
18	Huddersfield	12	1	3	8	-18	6
19	Cardiff	12	1	2	9	-16	5
20	Fulham	13	0	2	11	-24	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.