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Championship
Referee: Darren Handley
1–1
Full-time
Fulham
U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milton Keynes Dons Fulham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
2,3
4,0
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,0
This season — Championship · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 28%
25%
31%
Points per game
0,9
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
44%
75%
Both score Ø 60%
38%
81%
Average goals
2,3
3,6
Scored
0,9
1,8
Conceded
1,4
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%
11 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 7
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milton Keynes Dons 21. · Fulham 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hull 17 10 5 2 +18 35
2 Middlesbrough 17 10 3 4 +13 33
3 Brighton 15 9 6 0 +9 33
4 Burnley 16 9 5 2 +9 32
5 Derby 16 8 6 2 +11 30
6 Birmingham 16 8 4 4 +7 28
7 Cardiff 16 6 7 3 +5 25
8 Reading 16 6 6 4 +6 24
9 Ipswich 16 6 6 4 +0 24
10 Sheffield Weds 15 6 5 4 +1 23
11 Brentford 16 6 3 7 -2 21
12 Fulham 16 5 5 6 +1 20
13 QPR 17 5 5 7 -3 20
14 Wolves 16 5 4 7 -1 19
15 Leeds 16 4 7 5 -3 19
16 Blackburn 16 3 8 5 +0 17
17 Preston 16 3 8 5 -2 17
18 Nott'm Forest 16 4 5 7 -4 17
19 Bristol City 17 3 7 7 -9 16
20 Huddersfield 16 3 6 7 -7 15
21 Milton Keynes Dons 16 4 2 10 -9 14
22 Charlton 16 3 4 9 -12 13
23 Bolton 16 1 8 7 -12 11
24 Rotherham 16 2 3 11 -16 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milton Keynes Dons Fulham
1–0 D. Bowditch
Josh Murphy
30′
44′
M. Dembélé 1–1
R. McCormack
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 K. Voser
↦ R. Fredericks
56′
🟨 Sean Kavanagh
62′
🟨 Ross McCormack
70′
🔁 S. Mattila
↦ R. Tunnicliffe
R. Hall 🔁
↦ D. Bowditch
71′
C. Baker 🔁
↦ S. Carruthers
77′
S. Church 🔁
↦ N. Maynard
86′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Milton Keynes Dons

1 David Martin
5 K. McFadzean D
3 D. Lewington D
12 J. Spence D
8 D. Potter M
6 A. Kay D
14 S. Carruthers M
39 D. Poyet M
9 D. Bowditch M
28 N. Maynard F
31 Josh Murphy M
Bench (7)
38 R. Hall
7 C. Baker
11 S. Church
2 L. Hodson
13 S. Gallagher
17 D. Powell
22 C. Cropper

Fulham

12 J. Lewis G
5 R. Stearman D
3 L. Garbutt D
33 D. Burn D
23 J. O'Hara M
10 T. Cairney M
32 S. Kavanagh D
19 R. Tunnicliffe M
7 R. Fredericks D
44 R. McCormack F
25 M. Dembélé F
Bench (7)
15 K. Voser
14 S. Mattila
4 S. Hutchinson
9 M. Smith
16 C. Woodrow
18 B. Pringle
42 M. Rodak

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.