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Championship
Referee: Oliver Langford
Norwich
S U S U T
3–2
Full-time
Cardiff
U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Cardiff
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,3
This season — Championship · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,6
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 40%
40%
40%
Average goals
2,2
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%
10 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
7 Corners 5
2 Offside 7
7 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Norwich 12. · Cardiff 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Huddersfield 5 4 1 0 +4 13
2 Fulham 5 3 2 0 +3 11
3 Reading 6 3 1 2 -2 10
4 Barnsley 5 3 0 2 +4 9
5 Newcastle 5 3 0 2 +4 9
6 QPR 5 3 0 2 +3 9
7 Bristol City 5 3 0 2 +2 9
8 Nott'm Forest 5 3 0 2 +0 9
9 Brighton 5 2 2 1 +4 8
10 Wolves 5 2 2 1 +3 8
11 Birmingham 5 2 2 1 +2 8
12 Norwich 5 2 2 1 +1 8
13 Ipswich 6 2 2 2 +0 8
14 Burton Albion 5 2 1 2 +1 7
15 Brentford 5 2 1 2 +1 7
16 Aston Villa 5 1 2 2 +0 5
17 Cardiff 5 1 2 2 -2 5
18 Derby 5 1 2 2 -2 5
19 Sheffield Weds 5 1 2 2 -3 5
20 Wigan 5 1 1 3 +0 4
21 Leeds 5 1 1 3 -4 4
22 Rotherham 5 1 1 3 -9 4
23 Preston 5 1 0 4 -2 3
24 Blackburn 5 0 1 4 -8 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Norwich Cardiff
R. Bennett 🔁
↦ R. Brady
12′
1–0 C. Jerome
16′
45′
🟨 Matthew Connolly
Half-time 1–0
Timm Klose 🟨
50′
Alexander Tettey 🟨
55′
2–0 R. Martin
Jacob Murphy
59′
64′
🔁 P. Whittingham
↦ L. Immers
64′
🔁 K. Harris
↦ D. John
A. Pritchard 🔁
↦ W. Hoolahan
71′
71′
🔁 C. Noone
↦ M. Connolly
Josh Murphy 🔁
↦ Jacob Murphy
82′
86′
A. Pilkington 2–1
L. Peltier
90′
🟨 Anthony Pilkington
3–1 Josh Murphy
J. Howson
90′
94′
A. Pilkington 3–2
S. Morrison
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Norwich

4-2-3-1
33 M. McGovern G
5 R. Martin D
15 T. Klose D
25 Ivo Pinto D
27 A. Tettey M
14 W. Hoolahan M
4 G. Dorrans M
8 J. Howson M
12 R. Brady M
22 Jacob Murphy M
10 C. Jerome F
Bench (7)
24 R. Bennett
21 A. Pritchard
31 Josh Murphy
1 J. Ruddy
6 S. Bassong
18 Y. Mulumbu
19 K. Lafferty

Coach: A. Neil

Cardiff

3-4-1-2
30 B. Wilson G
16 M. Connolly D
2 L. Peltier D
4 S. Morrison D
6 J. Richards D
12 D. John D
17 A. Gunnarsson M
13 A. Pilkington F
8 J. Ralls M
19 R. Lambert F
10 L. Immers M
Bench (7)
7 P. Whittingham
24 K. Harris
11 C. Noone
5 B. Écuélé Manga
9 F. Gounongbe
21 B. Amos
25 E. Huws

Coach: P. Trollope

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Oliver Langford · 107 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.