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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Derby

S S S T U

3–1

Full-time

Brentford

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

This season — Championship · 7/8 matches

Win Ø 54%

57%

50%

Points per game

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

43%

38%

Both score Ø 53%

43%

63%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

40% Possession 60%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Brentford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+8	17
2	Wigan	9	5	1	3	+3	16
3	Leeds	7	4	3	0	+10	15
4	Brentford	8	4	3	1	+8	15
5	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+8	14
6	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Derby	7	4	1	2	+4	13
8	Sheffield United	8	4	1	3	+3	13
9	Aston Villa	8	3	4	1	+2	13
10	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Nott'm Forest	8	2	5	1	+1	11
12	Norwich	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Sheffield Weds	8	3	2	3	-1	11
14	Blackburn	8	2	5	1	-1	11
15	Bolton	8	3	2	3	-3	11
16	QPR	8	3	1	4	-7	10
17	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
18	Rotherham	8	3	0	5	-7	9
19	Hull	8	2	1	5	-4	7
20	Birmingham	8	0	6	2	-2	6
21	Millwall	8	1	3	4	-4	6
22	Reading	8	1	2	5	-4	5
23	Preston	8	1	2	5	-8	5
24	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Brentford	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Leeds	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Rotherham	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
9	Nott'm Forest	4	2	2	0	+2	8
10	Derby	3	2	1	0	+4	7
11	Sheffield United	4	2	1	1	+3	7
12	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
13	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+0	7
14	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
15	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	6
16	QPR	4	2	0	2	-1	6
17	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
19	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
20	Ipswich	4	0	4	0	+0	4
21	Birmingham	4	0	4	0	+0	4
22	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
23	Hull	4	1	0	3	-2	3
24	Reading	4	0	0	4	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+1	7
2	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Bolton	4	2	1	1	+0	7
4	Derby	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Norwich	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	-2	5
13	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	QPR	4	1	1	2	-6	4
15	Wigan	4	1	0	3	-1	3
16	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Nott'm Forest	4	0	3	1	-1	3
18	Sheffield Weds	4	1	0	3	-3	3
19	Birmingham	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-3	2
21	Millwall	4	0	1	3	-4	1
22	Ipswich	4	0	0	4	-6	0
23	Preston	4	0	0	4	-8	0
24	Rotherham	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.