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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Brych

M'gladbach

S U S S T

3–0

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,2

3,2

Scored

2,5

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-2,5

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 34%

56%

11%

Points per game

1,9

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

78%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

56%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

20 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 4

18 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 5. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+20	24
2	Bayern Munich	10	6	2	2	+7	20
3	RB Leipzig	10	5	4	1	+10	19
4	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+10	17
5	M'gladbach	9	5	2	2	+8	17
6	Werder Bremen	9	5	2	2	+3	17
7	Hoffenheim	10	5	1	4	+8	16
8	Hertha	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Augsburg	10	3	4	3	+2	13
10	Freiburg	10	3	4	3	-2	13
11	Wolfsburg	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Leverkusen	10	3	2	5	-5	11
13	Schalke 04	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Nurnberg	10	2	4	4	-11	10
15	Mainz	9	2	3	4	-5	9
16	Hannover	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	1	2	6	-15	5
18	Stuttgart	10	1	2	7	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+13	13
2	M'gladbach	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+9	11
4	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Nurnberg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Bayern Munich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Mainz	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+8	7
11	Hoffenheim	5	2	1	2	+4	7
12	Augsburg	5	1	3	1	+2	6
13	Schalke 04	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Hannover	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Leverkusen	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-9	4
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	10
4	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+4	9
5	Werder Bremen	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	RB Leipzig	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Wolfsburg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Leverkusen	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Hertha	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	M'gladbach	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Schalke 04	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Hannover	6	0	2	4	-8	2
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	0	2	2	-9	2
16	Nurnberg	5	0	2	3	-14	2
17	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Stuttgart	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.