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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Chelsea

U U S U S

3–1

Full-time

Crystal Palace

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

70%

20%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

70%

30%

Both score Ø 40%

50%

30%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

2,4

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

73% Possession 27%

15 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

6 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Crystal Palace 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	2	0	+29	29
2	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+16	27
3	Chelsea	10	7	3	0	+17	24
4	Tottenham	11	8	0	3	+9	24
5	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+11	23
6	Bournemouth	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Man United	11	6	2	3	+1	20
8	Watford	11	6	1	4	+3	19
9	Everton	11	5	3	3	+4	18
10	Leicester	11	5	1	5	+1	16
11	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Brighton	11	4	2	5	-4	14
13	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-4	11
14	Crystal Palace	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Southampton	11	1	4	6	-13	7
17	Newcastle	11	1	3	7	-7	6
18	Cardiff	11	1	2	8	-15	5
19	Fulham	10	1	2	7	-17	5
20	Huddersfield	10	0	3	7	-17	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Everton	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Watford	6	4	0	2	+2	12
6	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+6	11
7	Bournemouth	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+2	10
9	Man United	5	3	1	1	+0	10
10	Wolves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	West Ham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
13	Tottenham	4	2	0	2	+1	6
14	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Cardiff	6	1	1	4	-6	4
16	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-7	4
17	Southampton	5	0	3	2	-4	3
18	Newcastle	6	1	0	5	-5	3
19	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	6	0	1	+8	18
2	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Man City	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Bournemouth	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Leicester	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Watford	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Wolves	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-5	4
14	Brighton	6	1	1	4	-6	4
15	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-9	4
16	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-9	4
17	Newcastle	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Huddersfield	5	0	2	3	-10	2
19	Cardiff	5	0	1	4	-9	1
20	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.