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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Aston Villa

U S U S S

7–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

4,7

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,0

4,3

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

30% Possession 70%

18 Shots 14

11 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 10. · Liverpool 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Tottenham	4	2	1	1	+7	7
6	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	West Ham	4	2	0	2	+4	6
10	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Wolves	4	2	0	2	-3	6
14	Man City	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Brighton	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Man United	3	1	0	2	-6	3
17	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-5	0
19	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	Fulham	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Man City	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Man United	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	West Brom	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.