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Ligue 1

Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles

Troyes

U U T U

1–3

Full-time

Caen

S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

68% Possession 32%

15 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Troyes 17. · Caen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Reims	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Rennes	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
5	Angers	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Bastia	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	St Etienne	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Nantes	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Bordeaux	5	1	3	1	+1	6
10	Lille	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Caen	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Nice	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Monaco	4	1	2	1	-2	5
14	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Marseille	4	1	0	3	+2	3
16	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-6	3
18	Lorient	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bastia	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Reims	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nantes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+5	3
10	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Guingamp	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Nice	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Troyes	3	0	3	0	+0	3
14	Caen	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Angers	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Lyon	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Montpellier	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Angers	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Bordeaux	3	0	3	0	+0	3
7	Caen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Reims	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Lille	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Bastia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Toulouse	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Guingamp	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.