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Serie A

Referee: Piero Giacomelli

Bologna

U T S T U

1–2

Full-time

Milan

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,3

1,5

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 38%

32%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 12. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	28	4	3	+59	88
2	Napoli	34	26	6	2	+48	84
3	Roma	35	21	7	7	+31	70
4	Lazio	34	20	7	7	+40	67
5	Inter	35	18	12	5	+32	66
6	Atalanta	34	15	10	9	+17	55
7	Milan	34	15	9	10	+6	54
8	Fiorentina	34	14	9	11	+9	51
9	Sampdoria	34	15	6	13	-2	51
10	Torino	34	11	14	9	+7	47
11	Genoa	34	11	8	15	-5	41
12	Bologna	34	11	6	17	-7	39
13	Sassuolo	35	9	10	16	-31	37
14	Crotone	35	9	7	19	-24	34
15	Udinese	34	10	3	21	-13	33
16	Cagliari	34	9	6	19	-26	33
17	Chievo	35	7	10	18	-26	31
18	Spal	34	5	14	15	-25	29
19	Verona	34	7	4	23	-41	25
20	Benevento	34	5	2	27	-49	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	14	1	2	+34	43
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Inter	18	11	5	2	+22	38
4	Sampdoria	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Roma	18	11	1	6	+12	34
6	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+25	31
7	Atalanta	17	8	5	4	+10	29
8	Milan	17	8	5	4	+2	29
9	Torino	17	7	6	4	+11	27
10	Fiorentina	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Crotone	18	6	5	7	-2	23
12	Bologna	17	6	4	7	+1	22
13	Genoa	17	6	3	8	-2	21
14	Chievo	17	5	6	6	-4	21
15	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-12	18
16	Udinese	17	5	2	10	-3	17
17	Spal	17	3	8	6	-11	17
18	Sassuolo	17	3	7	7	-11	16
19	Verona	17	5	1	11	-18	16
20	Benevento	17	4	1	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	14	3	1	+25	45
2	Napoli	17	13	4	0	+24	43
3	Roma	17	10	6	1	+19	36
4	Lazio	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Inter	17	7	7	3	+10	28
6	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+7	26
7	Fiorentina	17	7	4	6	+6	25
8	Milan	17	7	4	6	+4	25
9	Sassuolo	18	6	3	9	-20	21
10	Genoa	17	5	5	7	-3	20
11	Torino	17	4	8	5	-4	20
12	Bologna	17	5	2	10	-8	17
13	Udinese	17	5	1	11	-10	16
14	Cagliari	17	4	3	10	-14	15
15	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-17	15
16	Spal	17	2	6	9	-14	12
17	Crotone	17	3	2	12	-22	11
18	Chievo	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Verona	17	2	3	12	-23	9
20	Benevento	17	1	1	15	-31	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.