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Eredivisie
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Ajax
S S S T S
3–0
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
83%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
4,3
Scored
2,7
2,7
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,0
This season — Eredivisie · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 69%
72%
66%
Points per game
2,3
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
78%
66%
Both score Ø 60%
63%
56%
Average goals
3,6
3,2
Scored
2,6
2,1
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%
18 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · AZ Alkmaar 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 32 26 3 3 +48 81
2 Ajax 32 23 4 5 +52 73
3 AZ Alkmaar 32 21 5 6 +31 68
4 Feyenoord 32 18 6 8 +34 60
5 Heerenveen 30 12 9 9 +1 45
6 Zwolle 32 12 8 12 -5 44
7 Utrecht 28 11 9 8 -2 42
8 Vitesse 28 11 8 9 +14 41
9 Den Haag 30 11 7 12 -8 40
10 Excelsior 32 11 7 14 -10 40
11 Heracles 32 10 8 14 -17 38
12 Groningen 32 7 13 12 -4 34
13 VVV Venlo 32 7 13 12 -15 34
14 Willem II 32 9 6 17 -14 33
15 NAC Breda 32 8 6 18 -19 30
16 Roda 32 7 6 19 -29 27
17 Sparta Rotterdam 32 7 6 19 -36 27
18 Twente 32 5 8 19 -21 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax AZ Alkmaar
25′
🔁 O. Wijndal
↦ T. Ouwejan
31′
🟨 Guus Til
1–0 D. van de Beek
M. de Ligt
38′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 J. Kluivert
K. Huntelaar
49′
55′
🟨 Jonas Svensson
64′
🔁 I. Bel Hassani
↦ F. Druijf
K. Dolberg 🔁
↦ K. Huntelaar
66′
79′
🔁 J. van Overeem
↦ R. Vlaar
J. Ekkelenkamp 🔁
↦ N. Mazraoui
87′
3–0 David Neres
H. Ziyech
87′
R. Kristensen 🔁
↦ David Neres
90′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
1 A. Onana G
31 N. Tagliafico D
4 M. de Ligt D
5 M. Wöber D
20 L. Schöne M
10 H. Ziyech M
6 D. van de Beek M
40 N. Mazraoui D
9 K. Huntelaar F
45 J. Kluivert F
7 David Neres F
Bench (8)
25 K. Dolberg
47 J. Ekkelenkamp
43 R. Kristensen
33 K. Lamprou
36 D. de Wit
41 A. Matusiwa
44 M. Bakker
46 K. Sierhuis

Coach: E. ten Hag

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Bizot G
4 R. Vlaar D
2 J. Svensson D
12 P. Hatzidiakos D
5 T. Ouwejan D
6 F. Midtsjø M
20 M. Seuntjens F
14 T. Koopmeiners M
15 G. Til M
7 A. Jahanbakhsh F
38 F. Druijf F
Bench (7)
26 O. Wijndal
18 I. Bel Hassani
8 J. van Overeem
3 R. van Eijden
16 G. Coutinho
23 R. van Rhijn
25 N. Olij

Coach: J. van den Brom

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk · 131 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.