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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Lille

S S T S U

5–1

Full-time

Paris SG

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 73%

58%

87%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

52%

77%

Both score Ø 50%

52%

47%

Average goals

2,5

3,6

Scored

1,6

3,0

Conceded

0,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lille 2. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	26	3	1	+71	81
2	Lille	31	18	7	6	+22	61
3	Lyon	32	16	8	8	+13	56
4	St Etienne	32	15	8	9	+11	53
5	Marseille	32	15	6	11	+6	51
6	Montpellier	32	12	12	8	+8	48
7	Reims	32	11	15	6	+0	48
8	Nice	32	13	9	10	-6	48
9	Strasbourg	32	10	14	8	+14	44
10	Nimes	32	12	7	13	+0	43
11	Rennes	32	11	10	11	+0	43
12	Angers	32	9	14	9	+1	41
13	Bordeaux	32	9	11	12	-4	38
14	Toulouse	32	8	11	13	-16	35
15	Nantes	31	9	7	15	-5	34
16	Monaco	32	7	11	14	-15	32
17	Amiens	32	8	8	16	-19	32
18	Dijon	32	6	7	19	-24	25
19	Guingamp	32	5	9	18	-34	24
20	Caen	32	4	11	17	-23	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	15	1	0	+47	46
2	St Etienne	16	11	2	3	+16	35
3	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+17	34
4	Lyon	16	10	3	3	+14	33
5	Lille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
6	Reims	16	7	7	2	+6	28
7	Montpellier	16	7	6	3	+10	27
8	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
9	Nice	15	8	3	4	+1	27
10	Nimes	16	7	5	4	+9	26
11	Rennes	16	7	5	4	+7	26
12	Strasbourg	16	6	7	3	+10	25
13	Nantes	15	6	4	5	+7	22
14	Angers	16	5	7	4	+3	22
15	Amiens	16	6	3	7	-3	21
16	Toulouse	16	4	7	5	-3	19
17	Monaco	17	3	6	8	-11	15
18	Guingamp	16	3	5	8	-9	14
19	Dijon	16	3	4	9	-14	13
20	Caen	16	2	5	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	2	1	+24	35
2	Lille	16	9	3	4	+6	30
3	Lyon	16	6	5	5	-1	23
4	Montpellier	16	5	6	5	-2	21
5	Nice	17	5	6	6	-7	21
6	Reims	16	4	8	4	-6	20
7	Strasbourg	16	4	7	5	+4	19
8	Angers	16	4	7	5	-2	19
9	St Etienne	16	4	6	6	-5	18
10	Monaco	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Rennes	16	4	5	7	-7	17
12	Nimes	16	5	2	9	-9	17
13	Marseille	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Toulouse	16	4	4	8	-13	16
15	Dijon	16	3	3	10	-10	12
16	Caen	16	2	6	8	-11	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	12
18	Bordeaux	16	2	5	9	-10	11
19	Amiens	16	2	5	9	-16	11
20	Guingamp	16	2	4	10	-25	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.