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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Utrecht

T T T U S

3–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 9/11 matches

Win Ø 45%

44%

45%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

78%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

55%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

2,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

19 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 12. · Excelsior 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	10	0	1	+24	30
2	Ajax	12	8	1	3	+25	25
3	Zwolle	11	6	4	1	+7	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	7	1	3	+4	22
5	Feyenoord	12	5	4	3	+7	19
6	Vitesse	10	5	3	2	+10	18
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	+0	18
8	Excelsior	11	5	2	4	+0	17
9	Den Haag	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Heracles	12	4	3	5	-4	15
11	VVV Venlo	12	3	5	4	-4	14
12	Utrecht	9	4	1	4	-6	13
13	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	5	5	-9	11
14	Willem II	12	3	1	8	-12	10
15	Groningen	11	2	3	6	-5	9
16	Twente	12	3	0	9	-7	9
17	NAC Breda	12	2	3	7	-16	9
18	Roda	11	2	1	8	-13	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Zwolle	5	5	0	0	+8	15
3	Heracles	7	4	2	1	+4	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	0	2	+1	12
5	Ajax	5	3	0	2	+7	9
6	Twente	6	3	0	3	+1	9
7	Groningen	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Feyenoord	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Den Haag	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Utrecht	4	2	1	1	-2	7
12	Vitesse	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	VVV Venlo	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Willem II	6	1	1	4	-3	4
15	Roda	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Heerenveen	5	1	1	3	-7	4
18	NAC Breda	6	1	1	4	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+18	16
2	Heerenveen	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Vitesse	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Excelsior	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+12	12
6	Feyenoord	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	VVV Venlo	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Den Haag	5	3	0	2	+0	9
10	Zwolle	6	1	4	1	-1	7
11	Utrecht	5	2	0	3	-4	6
12	Willem II	6	2	0	4	-9	6
13	NAC Breda	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Sparta Rotterdam	6	0	3	3	-8	3
15	Roda	7	1	0	6	-10	3
16	Heracles	5	0	1	4	-8	1
17	Groningen	5	0	0	5	-6	0
18	Twente	6	0	0	6	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.