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Eredivisie
Referee: Edwin Van de Graaf
Excelsior
U T S T U
3–3
Full-time
Heerenveen
S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heerenveen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,3
4,7
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
2,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 20%
20%
20%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 80%
60%
100%
Average goals
3,4
5,0
Scored
1,4
2,2
Conceded
2,0
2,8
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 10
8 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 7
1 Offside 0
4 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Excelsior 13. · Heerenveen 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 5 5 0 0 +18 15
2 Ajax 5 4 1 0 +13 13
3 Heracles 6 4 1 1 +4 13
4 Feyenoord 5 3 1 1 +5 10
5 AZ Alkmaar 5 2 2 1 +7 8
6 VVV Venlo 5 2 2 1 +1 8
7 Willem II 6 2 2 2 +0 8
8 FC Emmen 5 2 1 2 -6 7
9 For Sittard 6 1 3 2 -2 6
10 Den Haag 5 2 0 3 -6 6
11 Vitesse 4 1 2 1 -2 5
12 Heerenveen 5 1 2 2 -3 5
13 Excelsior 5 1 2 2 -3 5
14 Utrecht 5 1 2 2 -3 5
15 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 -7 4
16 Groningen 4 1 0 3 -4 3
17 Zwolle 5 1 0 4 -5 3
18 NAC Breda 5 1 0 4 -7 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Excelsior Heerenveen
1–0 A. Messaoud
Jeffry Fortes
12′
27′
🟨 Morten Thorsby
2–0 L. Bruins
H. Matthys
42′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 N. Mihajlović
↦ A. Zeneli
46′
🔁 M. Vlap
↦ Y. Kobayashi
49′
D. Bulthuis 2–1
N. Mihajlović
3–1 A. Messaoud
L. Burnet
51′
59′
M. Thorsby 3–2
N. Mihajlović
66′
🔁 J. Hornkamp
↦ M. van Bergen
A. Hadouir 🔁
↦ E. Ómarsson
83′
D. Mahmudov 🔁
↦ A. Messaoud
83′
T. Oude Kotte 🔁
↦ L. Bruins
91′
92′
J. Hornkamp 3–3
M. Thorsby
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Excelsior

4-3-3
20 S. Stevens G
28 L. Burnet D
15 J. Mattheij D
3 H. Matthys D
10 L. Bruins F
8 R. Koolwijk M
22 Jeffry Fortes D
14 A. Messaoud M
18 M. Edwards F
6 J. Schouten M
9 E. Ómarsson F
Bench (9)
7 A. Hadouir
24 D. Mahmudov
4 T. Oude Kotte
34 M. El Hamdaoui
1 A. Damen
5 R. van der Meer
11 J. Caenepeel
21 D. Haspolat
23 M. de Fockert

Coach: A. Poldervaart

Heerenveen

4-3-3
1 W. Hahn G
3 D. Høegh D
14 D. Bulthuis D
2 S. Floranus D
5 K. Pierie D
21 Y. Kobayashi M
10 B. Rienstra M
8 M. Thorsby M
13 A. Zeneli F
9 S. Lammers F
11 M. van Bergen F
Bench (11)
17 N. Mihajlović
18 M. Vlap
35 J. Hornkamp
4 N. Næss
7 M. Rojas
15 R. Kongolo
16 L. Woudenberg
19 P. van Amersfoort
23 F. Bednarek
24 T. Doornbusch
26 J. Bruijn

Coach: J. Olde Riekerink

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Edwin Van de Graaf · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.