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Super League
Referee: L Tschudi
Lugano
U U S S U
1–0
Full-time
Basel
S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
This season — Super League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
43%
43%
Points per game
1,9
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
43%
71%
Both score Ø 71%
71%
71%
Average goals
2,4
3,0
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%
8 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 2. · Basel 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 7 4 3 0 +4 15
2 Lugano 7 3 4 0 +3 13
3 St. Gallen 8 3 3 2 +0 12
4 Zurich 7 3 2 2 +1 11
5 Basel 7 3 1 3 +1 10
6 Lausanne 7 2 3 2 +3 9
7 Sion 7 1 4 2 -2 7
8 Vaduz 7 1 3 3 -2 6
9 Luzern 8 1 3 4 -3 6
10 Servette 7 1 2 4 -5 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Jul -20 Basel – Lugano 4–4 1. Jul -20 Lugano – Basel 2–1 10. Nov -19 Lugano – Basel 0–3 1. Sep -19 Basel – Lugano 2–1

Match report

Lugano Basel
25′
🟨 Albian Hajdari
Alexander Gerndt 🟨
34′
Roman Macek 🟨
39′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 J. van der Werff
↦ A. Padula
S. Guidotti 🔁
↦ R. Macek
65′
M. Bottani 🔁
↦ C. Lungoyi
65′
69′
🔁 Afimico Pululu
↦ J. von Moos
J. Odgaard 🔁
↦ A. Gerndt
76′
Adriá Guerrero 🟨
82′
M. Facchinetti 🔁
↦ Adrià Guerrero
87′
1–0 M. Bottani ⚽
J. Odgaard
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lugano

3-5-1-1
46 N. Baumann G
5 M. Marić D
30 F. Daprelà D
16 N. Lavanchy M
4 Á. Kecskés D
3 Adrià Guerrero M
6 M. Čovilo M
77 R. Macek M
24 S. Lovric M
19 A. Gerndt F
8 C. Lungoyi F
Bench (7)
22 S. Guidotti
10 M. Bottani
9 J. Odgaard
91 M. Facchinetti
58 S. Osigwe
18 K. Monzialo
23 J. Ardaiz

Coach: M. Jacobacci

Basel

3-4-1-2
13 H. Lindner G
17 T. Klose D
4 E. Cömert D
72 A. Padula M
76 A. Hajdari D
14 V. Stocker F
20 F. Frei M
23 P. Kasami M
9 R. van Wolfswinkel F
98 Arthur Cabral F
18 J. von Moos M
Bench (7)
21 J. van der Werff
11 Afimico Pululu
31 C. Chiappetta
26 A. Kalulu
30 E. Zhegrova
8 Y. Marchand
46 F. Gebhardt

Coach: C. Sforza

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Tschudi · 74 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.