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Premier League

Referee: M Dean

Man United

T S T S U

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 45%

40%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

80%

67%

Both score Ø 65%

80%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

2,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 15. · Arsenal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+2	16
2	Everton	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Southampton	7	4	1	2	+2	13
4	Wolves	7	4	1	2	+0	13
5	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+7	12
6	Aston Villa	6	4	0	2	+6	12
7	Leicester	6	4	0	2	+5	12
8	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+8	11
9	Man City	6	3	2	1	+1	11
10	Newcastle	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Leeds	6	3	1	2	+3	10
12	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	10
13	Arsenal	6	3	0	3	+1	9
14	West Ham	7	2	2	3	+3	8
15	Man United	5	2	1	2	-3	7
16	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	West Brom	6	0	3	3	-8	3
18	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-7	1
19	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Burnley	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Everton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	+2	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	-3	6
8	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Man City	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Man United	3	0	1	2	-7	1
19	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Fulham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	2	0	+5	8
4	Man City	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Leeds	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Everton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Wolves	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	5
13	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-3	4
16	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	+0	3
17	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.