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Primeira Liga
Referee: António Nobre
Sp Braga
S S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Farense
T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Farense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
71%
14%
Points per game
2,1
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 50%
43%
57%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%
16 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 0
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
19 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Farense 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 8 7 1 0 +16 22
2 Porto 8 5 1 2 +9 16
3 Benfica 7 5 0 2 +8 15
4 Sp Braga 7 5 0 2 +5 15
5 Guimaraes 8 4 1 3 -1 13
6 Pacos Ferreira 7 3 2 2 +1 11
7 Nacional 8 2 4 2 +0 10
8 Santa Clara 8 3 1 4 -1 10
9 Rio Ave 8 2 4 2 -2 10
10 Famalicao 8 2 3 3 -5 9
11 Gil Vicente 8 2 2 4 -2 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 -2 8
13 Belenenses 8 1 5 2 -2 8
14 Tondela 8 2 2 4 -8 8
15 Maritimo 7 2 1 4 -3 7
16 Boavista 8 1 4 3 -5 7
17 Portimonense 8 2 1 5 -5 7
18 Farense 7 1 2 4 -3 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Braga Farense
David Carmo 🟨
4′
29′
ℹ️ Ryan Gauld
VAR: Goal cancelled
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Amine Oudrhiri
Fransergio 🟨
58′
Al Musrati 🔁
↦ Castro
63′
André Horta 🔁
↦ Iuri Medeiros
63′
João Novais 🔁
↦ Fransérgio
63′
73′
🔁 Hugo Seco
↦ B. Aouacheria
73′
🔁 Patrick
↦ N. Stojiljković
77′
🔁 Bura
↦ B. Mansilla
João Novais 🟨
80′
81′
🟨 Claudio Falcão
Guilherme Schettine 🔁
↦ Galeno
84′
1–0 Al Musrati
87′
90′
🟨 Ryan Gauld
91′
🔁 Madi Queta
↦ Filipe Melo
91′
🔁 Licá
↦ A. Oudrhiri
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sp Braga

3-4-2-1
1 Matheus Magalhães G
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
5 Nuno Sequeira D
36 Bruno Viana D
16 David Carmo D
88 Castro M
27 Fransérgio M
45 Iuri Medeiros F
20 Paulinho F
21 Ricardo Horta F
90 Galeno M
Bench (9)
8 Al Musrati
15 André Horta
7 João Novais
95 Guilherme Schettine
57 Rodrigo Gomes
3 Vítor Tormena
12 Tiago Sá
9 Abel Ruiz
34 Raúl Silva

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Farense

4-4-2
12 Rafael Defendi G
4 César Martins D
30 Abner Felipe D
78 Alex Pinto D
6 Filipe Melo M
5 A. Oudrhiri M
23 R. Gauld F
29 Cláudio Falcão D
9 N. Stojiljković F
26 B. Aouacheria M
11 B. Mansilla M
Bench (9)
7 Hugo Seco
19 Patrick
13 Bura
10 Madi Queta
88 Licá
41 Cássio Scheid
1 Hugo Marques
77 Alvarinho
14 Fabrício Isidoro

Coach: Sérgio Vieira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,36
U
4,74
B
8,43
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,75
U2,5 ✓
2,04
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

António Nobre · 138 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.