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Pro League
0–1
Full-time
Genk
S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Royal Excel Mouscron Genk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
This season — Pro League · 18/14 matches
Win Ø 40%
22%
57%
Points per game
1,0
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
67%
57%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,1
2,6
Scored
1,4
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Royal Excel Mouscron 14. · Genk 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Club Brugge 17 13 1 3 +27 40
2 Gent 16 11 3 2 +20 36
3 Anderlecht 16 10 5 1 +13 35
4 Oostende 17 9 5 3 +15 32
5 Genk 14 8 2 4 +5 26
6 Waregem 15 7 4 4 +6 25
7 Standard 18 8 1 9 -10 25
8 Mechelen 20 6 5 9 -7 23
9 St Truiden 20 7 2 11 -7 23
10 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 24 6 5 13 -11 23
11 Charleroi 15 6 4 5 +3 22
12 Westerlo 24 5 7 12 -20 22
13 Lokeren 19 5 4 10 -6 19
14 Royal Excel Mouscron 18 4 6 8 -6 18
15 Beveren 18 5 2 11 -12 17
16 Kortrijk 17 3 6 8 -10 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Royal Excel Mouscron Genk
Half-time 0–0
F. Marković 🔁
↦ F. Marquet
46′
M. Oussalah 🔁
↦ A. Badri
58′
59′
🔁 R. Malinovskiy
↦ B. Kumordzi
63′
T. Buffel 0–1
N. Karelis
F. Mulić 🔁
↦ J. Michel
71′
73′
🔁 M. Samatta
↦ N. Karelis
85′
🔁 Y. Buyens
↦ N. Kebano
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Royal Excel Mouscron

86 Vagner
3 N. Dussenne
6 T. Mézague
15 J. Castelletto
29 T. Peyre
5 D. Hubert
10 J. Michel
9 A. Badri
11 D. Mohamed
8 F. Marquet
17 E. Coulibaly
Bench (7)
18 F. Marković
25 M. Oussalah
45 F. Mulić
12 T. Rausin
13 N. Aksentijević
16 V. Viola
19 T. Dingome

Genk

1 M. Bizot
4 B. Hamalainen
27 C. Kabasele
6 S. Dewaest
5 S. Walsh
25 O. Ndidi
8 B. Kumordzi
92 N. Kebano
19 T. Buffel
7 N. Karelis
31 L. Bailey
Bench (7)
18 R. Malinovskiy
77 M. Samatta
71 Y. Buyens
3 K. Tshimanga
11 I. de Camargo
15 D. Wouters
26 L. Köteles

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.