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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Man City

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Tottenham

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Tottenham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 74%

94%

53%

Points per game

2,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

76%

41%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

3,7

2,6

Scored

3,1

1,8

Conceded

0,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 7

11 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 1

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Tottenham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	16	1	0	+41	49
2	Man United	17	12	2	3	+26	38
3	Chelsea	18	12	2	4	+18	38
4	Arsenal	18	10	3	5	+11	33
5	Burnley	18	9	5	4	+4	32
6	Tottenham	17	9	4	4	+16	31
7	Liverpool	17	8	7	2	+14	31
8	Leicester	18	7	5	6	+1	26
9	Watford	18	6	4	8	-6	22
10	Everton	17	6	4	7	-8	22
11	Huddersfield	18	6	3	9	-14	21
12	Southampton	18	4	6	8	-7	18
13	Brighton	18	4	6	8	-9	18
14	Crystal Palace	18	4	5	9	-13	17
15	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-15	17
16	Bournemouth	17	4	4	9	-5	16
17	Stoke	18	4	4	10	-20	16
18	Newcastle	18	4	3	11	-11	15
19	West Brom	17	2	8	7	-10	14
20	Swansea	17	3	3	11	-13	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	9	8	0	1	+19	24
2	Arsenal	9	8	0	1	+15	24
3	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
4	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+7	19
5	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+10	18
6	Liverpool	9	4	5	0	+11	17
7	Burnley	9	5	2	2	+4	17
8	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
9	Huddersfield	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Leicester	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Southampton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
13	Brighton	9	2	5	2	-3	11
14	West Ham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
15	Stoke	9	3	2	4	-8	11
16	Newcastle	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Watford	9	2	3	4	-9	9
18	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	9	2	1	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+19	27
2	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+0	15
4	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
5	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Arsenal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-5	8
11	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-6	7
12	Everton	9	1	4	4	-10	7
13	Huddersfield	9	2	1	6	-12	7
14	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	West Brom	9	1	3	5	-6	6
16	West Ham	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
18	Newcastle	9	1	2	6	-8	5
19	Crystal Palace	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Stoke	9	1	2	6	-12	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.