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Eliteserien

Referee: S Sinnes

Aalesund

T U T U S

3–2

Full-time

Sarpsborg 08

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aalesund Sarpsborg 08

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 32%

17%

46%

Points per game

0,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

63%

71%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,9

Conceded

2,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,73 xG 2,08

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aalesund 16. · Sarpsborg 08 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	25	18	4	3	+33	+17.1	58
2	Viking	24	16	4	4	+17	+3.3	52
3	Brann	25	16	3	6	+18	+1.0	51
4	Tromso	24	15	3	6	+10	+8.9	48
5	Molde	25	13	5	7	+25	+12.8	44
6	Lillestrom	25	12	3	10	+6	+6.9	39
7	Sarpsborg 08	24	11	4	9	+8	+2.4	37
8	Odd	24	8	7	9	-3	-3.3	31
9	Rosenborg	24	8	5	11	-9	-3.1	29
10	Stromsgodset	24	8	3	13	-6	-6.1	27
11	Ham-Kam	24	8	3	13	-17	-11.2	27
12	Valerenga	25	6	6	13	-10	-4.9	24
13	Haugesund	24	6	6	12	-13	-5.1	24
14	Stabaek	24	6	5	13	-12	-4.6	23
15	Sandefjord	25	5	6	14	-12	-13.0	21
16	Aalesund	24	4	3	17	-35	-1.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brann	13	10	2	1	+17	+0.4	32
2	Bodo/Glimt	12	9	2	1	+18	+6.8	29
3	Viking	12	9	2	1	+15	+2.4	29
4	Molde	12	8	2	2	+20	+7.2	26
5	Tromso	13	8	2	3	+8	+6.9	26
6	Lillestrom	13	8	0	5	+10	+4.8	24
7	Sarpsborg 08	12	7	1	4	+12	+0.7	22
8	Rosenborg	12	6	2	4	+4	+3.8	20
9	Odd	12	5	4	3	+3	-0.0	19
10	Stabaek	13	5	3	5	+4	-3.4	18
11	Ham-Kam	12	5	3	4	+1	-6.2	18
12	Haugesund	12	5	2	5	-2	-4.8	17
13	Sandefjord	12	4	4	4	+7	-6.6	16
14	Stromsgodset	11	5	1	5	+2	-1.6	16
15	Aalesund	12	3	3	6	-8	+4.6	12
16	Valerenga	12	2	2	8	-8	+0.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	13	9	2	2	+15	+10.3	29
2	Viking	12	7	2	3	+2	+0.9	23
3	Tromso	11	7	1	3	+2	+1.9	22
4	Brann	12	6	1	5	+1	+0.7	19
5	Molde	13	5	3	5	+5	+5.5	18
6	Valerenga	13	4	4	5	-2	-5.4	16
7	Sarpsborg 08	12	4	3	5	-4	+1.7	15
8	Lillestrom	12	4	3	5	-4	+2.1	15
9	Odd	12	3	3	6	-6	-3.3	12
10	Stromsgodset	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.5	11
11	Rosenborg	12	2	3	7	-13	-6.9	9
12	Ham-Kam	12	3	0	9	-18	-5.1	9
13	Haugesund	12	1	4	7	-11	-0.3	7
14	Stabaek	11	1	2	8	-16	-1.2	5
15	Sandefjord	13	1	2	10	-19	-6.4	5
16	Aalesund	12	1	0	11	-27	-5.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.