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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Southampton

T T S T T

3–2

Full-time

Burnley

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 30%

31%

28%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

45%

31%

Both score Ø 40%

45%

34%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

53% Possession 47%

24 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 5

12 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 14. · Burnley 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	31	23	5	3	+45	74
2	Man United	29	16	9	4	+24	57
3	Leicester	30	17	5	8	+19	56
4	Chelsea	30	14	9	7	+16	51
5	Liverpool	30	14	7	9	+15	49
6	West Ham	29	14	7	8	+10	49
7	Tottenham	29	14	6	9	+19	48
8	Everton	28	14	4	10	+3	46
9	Arsenal	30	12	6	12	+5	42
10	Leeds	30	13	3	14	-1	42
11	Aston Villa	28	12	5	11	+9	41
12	Crystal Palace	29	10	7	12	-16	37
13	Wolves	29	9	8	12	-10	35
14	Southampton	29	9	6	14	-15	33
15	Burnley	29	8	9	12	-15	33
16	Brighton	29	7	11	11	-4	32
17	Newcastle	29	7	7	15	-20	28
18	Fulham	30	5	11	14	-15	26
19	West Brom	30	4	9	17	-34	21
20	Sheffield United	30	4	2	24	-35	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+23	38
2	West Ham	15	8	4	3	+8	28
3	Chelsea	15	7	5	3	+11	26
4	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+11	24
5	Man United	14	7	3	4	+10	24
6	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+4	23
7	Leicester	15	7	1	7	+4	22
8	Leeds	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+0	21
10	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-6	20
11	Wolves	14	5	4	5	+0	19
12	Burnley	15	4	6	5	-4	18
13	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	+2	17
14	Southampton	14	5	2	7	+0	17
15	Everton	14	5	2	7	-3	17
16	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	Brighton	15	2	7	6	-3	13
18	West Brom	15	2	5	8	-24	11
19	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-12	10
20	Fulham	16	2	4	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+22	36
2	Leicester	15	10	4	1	+15	34
3	Man United	15	9	6	0	+14	33
4	Everton	14	9	2	3	+6	29
5	Liverpool	15	7	5	3	+11	26
6	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+5	25
7	Tottenham	15	7	3	5	+8	24
8	Aston Villa	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+5	21
10	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+2	21
11	Leeds	15	7	0	8	-4	21
12	Brighton	14	5	4	5	-1	19
13	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-10	17
14	Fulham	14	3	7	4	-1	16
15	Wolves	15	4	4	7	-10	16
16	Southampton	15	4	4	7	-15	16
17	Burnley	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Newcastle	15	3	3	9	-14	12
19	West Brom	15	2	4	9	-10	10
20	Sheffield United	15	1	1	13	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.