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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Newcastle

U T S T U

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 11. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+4	7
5	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Man City	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	West Ham	3	1	0	2	+1	3
13	Man United	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Brighton	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Southampton	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Fulham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-3	1
12	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Man City	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-2	3
15	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.