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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Brighton

U T T T S

3–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 23%

21%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

46%

43%

Both score Ø 56%

57%

54%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%

11 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 16. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	22	5	3	+43	71
2	Man United	29	16	9	4	+24	57
3	Leicester	29	17	5	7	+21	56
4	Chelsea	29	14	9	6	+19	51
5	West Ham	28	14	6	8	+10	48
6	Liverpool	29	13	7	9	+12	46
7	Everton	28	14	4	10	+3	46
8	Tottenham	28	13	6	9	+17	45
9	Aston Villa	27	12	5	10	+11	41
10	Arsenal	28	12	5	11	+8	41
11	Leeds	29	12	3	14	-2	39
12	Crystal Palace	29	10	7	12	-16	37
13	Wolves	29	9	8	12	-10	35
14	Southampton	29	9	6	14	-15	33
15	Burnley	29	8	9	12	-15	33
16	Brighton	28	6	11	11	-7	29
17	Newcastle	28	7	7	14	-17	28
18	Fulham	30	5	11	14	-15	26
19	West Brom	29	3	9	17	-37	18
20	Sheffield United	29	4	2	23	-34	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+23	38
2	West Ham	14	8	3	3	+8	27
3	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+14	26
4	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+11	24
5	Man United	14	7	3	4	+10	24
6	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+4	23
7	Leicester	14	7	1	6	+6	22
8	Arsenal	14	6	3	5	+3	21
9	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-6	20
10	Wolves	14	5	4	5	+0	19
11	Leeds	14	5	3	6	+2	18
12	Burnley	15	4	6	5	-4	18
13	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	+4	17
14	Southampton	14	5	2	7	+0	17
15	Everton	14	5	2	7	-3	17
16	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	West Brom	15	2	5	8	-24	11
18	Brighton	14	1	7	6	-6	10
19	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-12	10
20	Fulham	16	2	4	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	10	4	1	+15	34
2	Man City	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	Man United	15	9	6	0	+14	33
4	Everton	14	9	2	3	+6	29
5	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+5	25
6	Aston Villa	15	7	3	5	+7	24
7	Liverpool	14	6	5	3	+8	23
8	Tottenham	14	6	3	5	+6	21
9	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+2	21
10	Leeds	15	7	0	8	-4	21
11	Arsenal	14	6	2	6	+5	20
12	Brighton	14	5	4	5	-1	19
13	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-10	17
14	Fulham	14	3	7	4	-1	16
15	Wolves	15	4	4	7	-10	16
16	Southampton	15	4	4	7	-15	16
17	Burnley	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Newcastle	14	3	3	8	-11	12
19	West Brom	14	1	4	9	-13	7
20	Sheffield United	14	1	1	12	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.