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2. Bundesliga

Fortuna Dusseldorf

S S T S U

3–0

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

47%

34%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

69%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

12 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 1

4 Corners 5

4 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 5. · Erzgebirge Aue 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bochum	32	20	3	9	+25	63
2	Holstein Kiel	32	18	8	6	+24	62
3	Greuther Furth	32	16	10	6	+22	58
4	Hamburg	32	15	10	7	+24	55
5	Fortuna Dusseldorf	32	15	8	9	+7	53
6	Heidenheim	32	15	6	11	+5	51
7	St Pauli	32	13	8	11	-1	47
8	Paderborn	32	12	10	10	+10	46
9	Karlsruhe	32	12	10	10	+5	46
10	Darmstadt	32	13	6	13	+3	45
11	Erzgebirge Aue	32	11	8	13	-7	41
12	Nurnberg	32	10	10	12	-6	40
13	Hannover	32	11	6	15	+2	39
14	Regensburg	32	8	11	13	-14	35
15	Sandhausen	32	9	4	19	-19	31
16	Braunschweig	32	7	10	15	-24	31
17	Osnabruck	32	8	6	18	-23	30
18	Wurzburger Kickers	32	5	6	21	-33	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bochum	16	11	2	3	+22	35
2	Holstein Kiel	16	11	2	3	+13	35
3	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	10	4	2	+9	34
4	Heidenheim	16	10	3	3	+13	33
5	Hamburg	16	9	4	3	+20	31
6	Paderborn	16	8	5	3	+8	29
7	Greuther Furth	16	8	4	4	+10	28
8	Sandhausen	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	St Pauli	16	8	3	5	+4	27
10	Hannover	16	7	4	5	+9	25
11	Erzgebirge Aue	16	7	4	5	+0	25
12	Braunschweig	16	6	4	6	-5	22
13	Darmstadt	16	6	3	7	+2	21
14	Nurnberg	16	5	6	5	-1	21
15	Regensburg	16	5	6	5	-1	21
16	Karlsruhe	16	4	6	6	+0	18
17	Wurzburger Kickers	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Osnabruck	16	2	1	13	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Greuther Furth	16	8	6	2	+12	30
2	Karlsruhe	16	8	4	4	+5	28
3	Bochum	16	9	1	6	+3	28
4	Holstein Kiel	16	7	6	3	+11	27
5	Hamburg	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Darmstadt	16	7	3	6	+1	24
7	Osnabruck	16	6	5	5	-4	23
8	St Pauli	16	5	5	6	-5	20
9	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	5	4	7	-2	19
10	Nurnberg	16	5	4	7	-5	19
11	Heidenheim	16	5	3	8	-8	18
12	Paderborn	16	4	5	7	+2	17
13	Erzgebirge Aue	16	4	4	8	-7	16
14	Hannover	16	4	2	10	-7	14
15	Regensburg	16	3	5	8	-13	14
16	Braunschweig	16	1	6	9	-19	9
17	Wurzburger Kickers	16	2	1	13	-22	7
18	Sandhausen	16	1	0	15	-25	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.