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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Mainz

S S S U U

1–3

Full-time

Dortmund

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 42%

28%

56%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

47%

72%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

63%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,1

2,2

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

34% Possession 66%

9 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 13. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	23	6	4	+52	75
2	RB Leipzig	32	19	7	6	+29	64
3	Wolfsburg	32	17	9	6	+25	60
4	Dortmund	32	18	4	10	+25	58
5	Ein Frankfurt	33	15	12	6	+14	57
6	Leverkusen	33	14	10	9	+16	52
7	Union Berlin	33	11	14	8	+6	47
8	M'gladbach	33	12	10	11	+6	46
9	Stuttgart	33	12	9	12	+3	45
10	Freiburg	33	12	9	12	+2	45
11	Hoffenheim	33	10	10	13	-3	40
12	Augsburg	33	10	6	17	-15	36
13	Mainz	32	9	9	14	-16	36
14	Hertha	33	8	11	14	-10	35
15	Bielefeld	33	8	8	17	-28	32
16	Werder Bremen	33	7	10	16	-19	31
17	FC Koln	33	7	9	17	-27	30
18	Schalke 04	33	3	7	23	-60	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	4	0	+40	40
2	RB Leipzig	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Wolfsburg	16	10	4	2	+17	34
4	Ein Frankfurt	16	9	7	0	+15	34
5	Dortmund	16	10	2	4	+18	32
6	Union Berlin	16	7	8	1	+13	29
7	Leverkusen	17	8	5	4	+12	29
8	M'gladbach	17	8	4	5	+13	28
9	Freiburg	17	7	6	4	+10	27
10	Hoffenheim	16	7	3	6	+7	24
11	Augsburg	17	6	4	7	-4	22
12	Stuttgart	16	5	6	5	+3	21
13	Hertha	17	5	5	7	-5	20
14	Bielefeld	17	6	2	9	-10	20
15	Mainz	16	4	4	8	-8	16
16	Werder Bremen	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Schalke 04	17	3	3	11	-20	12
18	FC Koln	16	2	5	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	11	2	4	+12	35
2	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+13	28
3	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+8	26
4	Dortmund	16	8	2	6	+7	26
5	Stuttgart	17	7	3	7	+0	24
6	Leverkusen	16	6	5	5	+4	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	17	6	5	6	-1	23
8	Mainz	16	5	5	6	-8	20
9	FC Koln	17	5	4	8	-15	19
10	M'gladbach	16	4	6	6	-7	18
11	Union Berlin	17	4	6	7	-7	18
12	Freiburg	16	5	3	8	-8	18
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	5	8	-9	17
14	Hoffenheim	17	3	7	7	-10	16
15	Hertha	16	3	6	7	-5	15
16	Augsburg	16	4	2	10	-11	14
17	Bielefeld	16	2	6	8	-18	12
18	Schalke 04	16	0	4	12	-40	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.