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2. Bundesliga
Referee: T Gerach
Nurnberg
T T S T T
2–3
Full-time
Holstein Kiel
S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nurnberg Holstein Kiel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
2,0
2,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-1,2
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 30%
30%
30%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
50%
70%
Both score Ø 50%
30%
70%
Average goals
2,7
3,7
Scored
0,9
1,7
Conceded
1,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,9
-0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
24 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
6 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nurnberg 15. · Holstein Kiel 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hamburg 11 8 1 2 +10 25
2 Darmstadt 11 7 3 1 +9 24
3 Paderborn 11 7 1 3 +17 22
4 Heidenheim 10 4 5 1 +7 17
5 Fortuna Dusseldorf 11 5 2 4 +6 17
6 Karlsruhe 11 5 2 4 +5 17
7 Hannover 10 5 2 3 +4 17
8 Kaiserslautern 11 3 7 1 +3 16
9 Holstein Kiel 10 3 4 3 -3 13
10 Hansa Rostock 11 4 1 6 -7 13
11 Braunschweig 11 3 3 5 -8 12
12 Regensburg 11 3 3 5 -8 12
13 St Pauli 11 2 5 4 -2 11
14 Magdeburg 10 3 1 6 -9 10
15 Nurnberg 10 3 1 6 -9 10
16 Sandhausen 10 2 3 5 -3 9
17 Greuther Furth 11 1 6 4 -5 9
18 Bielefeld 11 2 2 7 -7 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nurnberg Holstein Kiel
4′
🟨 Julian Korb
33′
🟨 Patrick Erras
34′
🟨 Mikkel Kirkeskov
1–0 L. Tempelmann
F. Nürnberger
39′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 J. Sterner
↦ J. Korb
46′
🔁 K. Okyere Wriedt
↦ J. Arp
62′
S. Skrzybski 1–1
F. Reese
65′
F. Reese 1–2
S. Skrzybski
T. Duman 🔁
↦ J. Castrop
66′
J. Gyamerah 🔁
↦ E. Valentini
66′
67′
🔁 P. Sander
↦ L. Holtby
E. Shuranov 🔁
↦ K. Duah
73′
C. Daferner 🔁
↦ E. Wekesser
73′
74′
🔁 A. Mühling
↦ F. Porath
78′
🔁 M. Schulz
↦ F. Reese
79′
S. Skrzybski 1–3
Sadik Fofana 🟨
82′
82′
🟨 Kwasi Okyere Wriedt
M. Wintzheimer 🔁
↦ M. Dæhli
83′
2–3 C. Daferner
T. Duman
94′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Nurnberg

4-2-3-1
26 C. Mathenia G
22 E. Valentini D
16 C. Schindler D
4 J. Lawrence D
15 F. Nürnberger D
3 S. Fofana M
6 L. Tempelmann M
17 J. Castrop M
10 M. Dæhli M
13 E. Wekesser M
23 K. Duah F
Bench (9)
8 T. Duman
28 J. Gyamerah
11 E. Shuranov
33 C. Daferner
18 M. Wintzheimer
5 J. Geis
32 L. Breunig
1 C. Klaus
7 F. Lohkemper

Coach: M. Weinzierl

Holstein Kiel

4-3-1-2
21 T. Dähne G
23 J. Korb D
24 H. Wahl D
19 S. Lorenz D
2 M. Kirkeskov D
10 L. Holtby M
4 P. Erras M
27 F. Porath M
7 S. Skrzybski M
11 F. Reese F
20 J. Arp F
Bench (9)
32 J. Sterner
18 K. Okyere Wriedt
16 P. Sander
8 A. Mühling
25 M. Schulz
22 A. Ignjovski
5 S. Thesker
31 F. Bartels
1 T. Schreiber

Coach: M. Rapp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,21
U
3,66
B ✓
2,99
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,65
U2,5
2,23
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Gerach · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.