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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Arsenal

S U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Watford

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 40%

50%

30%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 35%

30%

40%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arsenal 7. · Watford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	11	8	2	1	+23	26
2	Man City	11	7	2	2	+16	23
3	Liverpool	10	6	4	0	+21	22
4	West Ham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+2	17
6	Brighton	11	4	5	2	+0	17
7	Arsenal	10	5	2	3	-1	17
8	Wolves	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Crystal Palace	11	3	6	2	+1	15
10	Tottenham	10	5	0	5	-7	15
11	Everton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
12	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Southampton	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Brentford	11	3	3	5	-1	12
15	Aston Villa	11	3	1	7	-6	10
16	Watford	10	3	1	6	-6	10
17	Leeds	10	2	4	4	-7	10
18	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-6	8
19	Newcastle	11	0	5	6	-12	5
20	Norwich	11	1	2	8	-21	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+14	13
2	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
3	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+5	10
4	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+5	9
6	Everton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	-3	9
9	Brighton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Wolves	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Burnley	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Brentford	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Watford	5	1	1	3	-7	4
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+16	13
2	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Man United	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Wolves	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	9
8	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Leicester	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-4	7
11	Watford	5	2	0	3	+1	6
12	Tottenham	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-14	4
18	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.