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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Arouca

S T U S T

1–2

Full-time

Sp Braga

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

22%

56%

Points per game

0,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

0,6

1,7

Conceded

1,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,78 xG 1,91

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

12 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Sp Braga 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+32	+23.9	30
2	Porto	9	8	0	1	+19	+13.9	24
3	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+18	+11.8	22
4	Santa Clara	9	6	0	3	+3	+6.9	18
5	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+9	+5.5	17
6	Famalicao	10	4	4	2	+3	-3.3	16
7	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	+1	+2.1	15
8	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.5	14
9	Casa Pia	10	3	3	4	-4	-2.5	12
10	Gil Vicente	10	2	4	4	-4	-4.2	10
11	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.0	9
12	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.8	9
13	AVS	10	2	3	5	-10	-5.6	9
14	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.3	9
15	Arouca	9	2	1	6	-12	-10.5	7
16	Estrela	10	1	3	6	-12	-9.0	6
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-9	-0.8	5
18	Farense	10	1	1	8	-13	-12.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+16	+9.0	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
3	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+12.6	15
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.2	10
6	Rio Ave	5	2	3	0	+2	+2.8	9
7	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
8	Moreirense	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.2	8
9	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
10	AVS	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.1	8
11	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.2	7
12	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	+1.3	7
13	Estoril	5	2	1	2	-2	-6.0	7
14	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
15	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.7	4
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Farense	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.3	3
18	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+19	+13.7	15
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	+1.3	9
3	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.0	8
4	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
5	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.4	8
6	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.3	7
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
8	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.9	6
9	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-2	+3.7	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.7	3
12	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.0	2
13	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
14	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-8	-5.7	2
15	AVS	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.4	1
16	Farense	5	0	1	4	-6	-8.3	1
17	Estrela	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.8	1
18	Rio Ave	5	0	0	5	-14	-10.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.