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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Chelsea

U S U S T

3–2

Full-time

Leeds

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

67%

20%

Points per game

2,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

47%

Both score Ø 54%

40%

67%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Leeds 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+24	38
2	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+32	34
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+26	33
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Tottenham	14	8	1	5	-1	25
6	Man United	15	7	3	5	+1	24
7	Arsenal	15	7	2	6	-4	23
8	Wolves	16	6	3	7	-2	21
9	Brentford	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Brighton	15	4	8	3	-2	20
11	Aston Villa	15	6	1	8	-3	19
12	Leicester	15	5	4	6	-4	19
13	Everton	15	5	3	7	-6	18
14	Crystal Palace	15	3	7	5	-2	16
15	Leeds	15	3	7	5	-7	16
16	Southampton	15	3	7	5	-7	16
17	Watford	16	4	1	11	-10	13
18	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-7	10
19	Newcastle	15	1	7	7	-13	10
20	Norwich	15	2	4	9	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	1	1	+15	19
2	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+3	18
3	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
4	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
6	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
8	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
9	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
12	Brentford	8	3	1	4	+0	10
13	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Leeds	8	2	4	2	-2	10
15	Wolves	8	3	1	4	-2	10
16	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
17	Newcastle	8	1	4	3	-5	7
18	Watford	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
20	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+19	19
2	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+12	19
3	Man City	8	6	1	1	+9	19
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
7	Wolves	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Brentford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	8	2	1	5	-10	7
12	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
13	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Crystal Palace	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.